Tariff Trouble: SCOTUS Opinion Could Go Against Trump
The Supreme Court is releasing its next batch of opinions on Wednesday, January 14, and Trump’s tariffs hang in the balance.
Trump v. V.O.S. Selections will decide whether the president overstepped his authority in implementing so many tariffs in 2025. The Supreme Court will decide whether the International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes all of Trump’s tariffs. A loss for Trump could lead to tariff rebates to businesses and greater control of trade policy granted to Congress.
Kalshi gives SCOTUS a 30% chance of ruling in favor of Trump’s tariffs. Polymarket’s crypto platform gives the Supreme Court a 25% chance of ruling in Trump’s favor.
Prices trending down
Prices opened above 50% in Kalshi and Polymarket’s SCOTUS tariff ruling markets. Odds fell from Sept. 9, when the Supreme Court agreed to hear the case, to Nov. 4.
On Nov. 5, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case. Supreme Court watchers found the court to be “skeptical” of Trump’s sweeping tariffs, seemingly siding with the small businesses that brought the case against the administration. Justice Sonia Sotomayor argued:
“It’s [Tariffing] a congressional power, not a presidential power, to tax…And you want to say tariffs are not taxes, but that’s exactly what they are. They’re generating money from American citizens, revenue.”
Market resolution date approaching
The Supreme Court doesn’t relesae a schedule of specific opinoin releases ahead of time. While Jan. 14 may be the day SCOTUS rules on Trump’s tariffs, it’s also possible that the opinion isn’t released until later. Wednesday could be the final morning traders have to buy contracts in this market.
However, an opinion leak could also boost the odds early. When SCOTUS overturned Roe v. Wade, a leaked draft opinion decreased PredictIt’s odds from 14% to 5% in a day. (PredictIt’s market asked whether SCOTUS would strike down Mississippi’s abortion ban, the effect of which was overturning Roe v. Wade.)
The most likely market resolution day for Kalshi and Polymarket’s SCOTUS tariff case markets is Wednesday, but traders should be prepared for information leaks ahead of the opinion’s release, too.