Talarico Wins, Paxton and Cornyn Shake Election Markets
James Talarico had a great night, but Texas Republicans still have to fight for their nomination.
Prediction markets showed Talarico ahead with about a 70% chance to win the Democratic primary on Tuesday. He won his party’s nomination with 52.4% of the vote compared to Jasmine Crockett’s 46.2%.
The Republicans had a very different night. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn went into primary night with a 24% chance of becoming the nominee. Attorney General Ken Paxton, the MAGA favorite, had an 82% chance to win the nomination.
Neither candidate drew a majority of the votes. Congressman Wesley Hunt and other candidates drew 17.4% of the vote. Cornyn received 41.9% of the vote, while Paxton got 40.7%. Paxton and Cornyn will head to a runoff election on May 26.
As the votes came in, Cornyn’s prediction market odds flipped. Both candidates’ odds changed to Paxton 55% and Cornyn 45%. On Wednesday morning, Cornyn’s odds spiked to 89%. Paxton had fallen to 10%, and not only because of his lower vote returns.
Cornyn’s renewed midterm hopes
Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Wednesday that he would urge Donald Trump to endorse Cornyn. The Atlantic also reported that Trump’s political advisors were nudging him to make that endorsement.
Prediction markets expect Trump to endorse Cornyn after he outperformed his polls on Tuesday. Emerson College’s final poll before the primary showed Paxton four points ahead of Cornyn. Cornyn finished the night just over one point ahead, a five-point gain over his polls.
Combined with Trump’s endorsement, markets anticipate Cornyn will be able to win his primary and run an effective campaign against Talarico.
Texas protects Republican safety net in Senate
The matchup between John Cornyn and James Talarico is highly anticipated, but Republicans have a 70% chance of winning the Texas Senate race.
In the US Senate, Democrats face a 53-47 Republican majority. The Democrats must also defend their four Senate seats up for re-election in 2026 and flip four Republican seats for the majority.
The Democrats are widely expected to retake the House of Representatives. Kalshi gives the Democrats an 83% chance of retaking the House, and traders project Democrats will hold 231 House seats after the midterms, 17 more than they hold.
Despite the challenges Trump could pose to Republicans during general elections, Republicans may be able to hold the Senate during an otherwise bruising set of midterms.