Robinhood says over one billion event contracts were traded on its platform in the last six months alone. The company’s venture into prediction markets isn’t just a side hustle now. It’s a major driver of growth for the company.
The trading app reported strong first-quarter earnings this week, posting a 50% year-over-year increase in net revenues to $927 million. But what is the new addition to the company? Event contracts.
Robinhood revealed that over 1 billion event contracts — yes/no-style derivatives tied to real-world outcomes — were traded on its platform in the last six months alone. That figure, shared during its earnings call and later confirmed at the EGR North America summit, represents a milestone for a product just a year old.
“We love what we are seeing, and it’s so early that the potential of this is vast,” said Robinhood’s CEO Vlad Tenev. “We think that this is an incredibly powerful, nascent asset class.”
A mainstream turn for prediction markets
Event contracts — largely binary trades that settle based on real-world results — have long lived on the periphery of financial markets. But Robinhood’s scale and user base may be changing that.
Launched as a complement to stocks and options, these contracts allow users to bet on events like the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision, the S&P’s Friday close, or even whether Congress passes a bill. Payouts are capped at $1 (per contract), limiting risk and making the format friendly to newer traders.
Robinhood’s latest earnings confirm what industry watchers have suspected: prediction markets are going mainstream.
Volatility in context simplified
Robinhood’s event contract volumes come amid elevated macroeconomic uncertainty. Tariffs, interest rate surprises, and an election season filled the market with fiscal brinkmanship. It’s the kind of news cycle that traditional assets struggle to price in directly, but event contracts thrive on.
Kalshi, which operates under full CFTC oversight, continues to offer structured event markets on inflation prints, unemployment, and political control of Congress. Polymarket, operating on blockchain rails, has gained traction with more speculative and cultural markets.
Robinhood, however, has bridged the gap between regulated infrastructure and a massive retail audience.
The surge in event trading also aligns with a broader market dynamic. During the heightened volatility of late March, driven by tariff announcements, inflation uncertainty, and shifting rate expectations. While institutional investors pared back risk exposure following Trump’s surprise April 2 tariff announcement, retail traders poured more than $8.8 billion into U.S. equities over five trading days, according to Vanda Research data reported by CNBC.
The prediction markets have also been referred to as a tool to gauge market sentiments nowadays, especially as an assessment during “recession talks.” Tenev mentioned that, “the great thing about the prediction market business is that it appeals to a broad range of customers. We see very different behaviours even within prediction markets when you talk about different contracts.”
What’s next for retail event trading
The company hinted at expanding its event offering further, potentially adding contracts tied to international events, earnings reactions, or legislative milestones.
Robinhood is also watching regulatory developments closely. While Kalshi remains the only U.S. platform offering political election contracts under CFTC review, Robinhood’s compliance structure may allow it to pivot quickly if new categories are cleared.
For now, it’s clear the firm sees macro-event trading not as a gimmick, but as a scalable revenue stream that fits the moment.
Robinhood’s earnings show a company diversifying far beyond meme stocks and crypto tokens. As macro volatility drives retail curiosity, prediction-style contracts may not just be here to stay; some believe they could even become the next dominant category.
Why wait for the news to affect your stocks, when you can just trade the news?
