Robinhood Acquires Own Prediction Market Exchange, But Can’t Quit Kalshi Yet
Robinhood Markets and partner Susquehanna International Group completed their acquisition of 90% of MIAXdx Wednesday, purchasing the derivatives platform from Miami International Holdings for an undisclosed sum. The deal gives Robinhood control of a CFTC-licensed Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization authorized to list and clear fully collateralized futures, options on futures, and swaps.
The move was designed to help the retail trading platform reduce its dependence on Kalshi, currently the largest provider of event-based contracts in the U.S. But the latest data reveals a more complicated reality: Robinhood and Kalshi remain deeply intertwined, with the partnership generating significant revenue for both companies.
Robinhood drives over half of Kalshi’s volume
Since launching event contracts in March 2025, Robinhood has been driving more than 50% of Kalshi’s total trading volume. In Q2 2025 alone, Robinhood users traded approximately $1 billion in contracts on Kalshi, representing over half of Kalshi’s $1.87 billion quarterly volume during that period. By September, analysts estimated Robinhood accounted for roughly one-third of Kalshi’s daily volume.
The partnership has been lucrative for both sides. Kalshi and Robinhood split a 2-cent per contract fee evenly, generating approximately $10 million in revenue for Robinhood during Q2 2025 alone. Kalshi recorded $23.8 billion in total trading volume during 2025 and opened 2026 with $291 million in daily notional volume on January 1.
Robinhood stated it will continue offering Kalshi contracts alongside products from its own exchange when MIAXdx begins operations later in 2026. However, owning exchange infrastructure will allow Robinhood to capture full fee structures rather than splitting revenue with Kalshi, potentially doubling earnings from prediction markets according to Bernstein analysts.
Acquisition ‘improves position’
The deal closes after Robinhood filed court papers defending its sports event contracts which are provided by Kalshi’s exchange, arguing that losing them would result in a severe business disruption. That filing showed that Robinhood users have traded more tha 100 million sports contracts in Wisconsin alone.
JB Mackenzie, VP and GM of Futures and International at Robinhood, said in a statement that the company’s new acquisition “accelerates our investment in the prediction markets and improves our position to deliver a better experience for customers in this growing asset class.” Prediction markets have become Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue source since debut, with management projecting a potential $300 million annual run rate.
Miami International Holdings CEO Thomas P. Gallagher said the sale “reaffirms our strategy of partnering with industry leaders to accelerate our growth strategies.” The company retained a 10% stake in MIAXdx, maintaining exposure to the growing prediction market while freeing resources to expand its options and equities trading infrastructure across eight exchanges including MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl, and The Bermuda Stock Exchange.
The platform has already traded more than 9 billion contracts across over 1 million users. While Robinhood hasn’t specified when it will start migrating users to contracts listed on its own platform rather than Kalshi’s, the MIAXdx exchange is expected to begin operations sometime in 2026.