PredictIt Releases App and Website Update
PredictIt has released its first major site update since its settlement with the CFTC in July 2025.
The political exchange has revamped its mobile pages to more easily fit new markets in one scroll. Its trading buttons have also been rebuilt to appear more user-friendly. Odds are displayed in both probabilities and decimal form. Both web and mobile versions have also been decluttered.
The CFTC revoked PredictIt’s no-action letter in 2022. PredictIt brought an Administrative Procedures Act (APA) case against the CFTC, arguing that the CFTC did not properly defend its decision to revoke PredictIt’s no-action letter. Both parties settled in 2025. PredictIt could also increase its position limits from $850 to $3,500 and eliminate its trader limit.
“This is just the beginning,” PredictIt’s website says. “More upgrades are on the way as we build the best prediction platform for political and policy junkies.”
Meanwhile, the prediction market industry continues to be scrutinized by both policymakers and academia.
New paper on “informed” trading
A new study of over 210,000 suspicious Polymarket wallets found these wallets had an almost 70% win rate. The study’s authors estimate that $143 million was “anomalous profit.”
A Harvard post based on this study argued that existing insider trading regulations fall short. Insider trading laws that govern securities don’t govern prediction markets, since they’re classified as commodities. Traders with inside information can also trade on Polymarket instead of Kalshi, which must submit to surveillance rules. The post’s authors argue:
“Polymarket, which has hosted the majority of documented suspicious trading, operates on a decentralized blockchain infrastructure and exists in a legal gray area. This asymmetry creates a perverse incentive: informed traders who wish to exploit material non-public information face fewer legal constraints by trading on Polymarket than on Kalshi, precisely because Polymarket’s regulatory status is unresolved.”
Polymarket announced new insider trading rules on Monday. The company has also argued that its security measures are sufficient to catch insider trading.
Courts are also examining the regulation of prediction markets.
Sixth and Third Circuit filings
The Sixth Circuit has released its briefing schedule for Kalshi’s case in Ohio. The first brief is due on May 5, Ohio’s reply on June 4, and Kalshi’s final brief on June 25.
The Sixth Circuit has issued the following briefing schedule in Kalshi v. Ohio:
May 5: Kalshi’s principal brief
June 4: Ohio’s response brief
June 25: Kalshi’s reply brief
Crucial appeal given the intra-circuit split (OH vs. TN) and the strongest PI denial to date. pic.twitter.com/YMEHPvxIdM
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) March 26, 2026
Kalshi also filed in the Third Circuit, arguing that Nevada’s temporary restraining order didn’t support reversing New Jersey’s preliminary injunction. The Third Circuit held oral arguments on New Jersey’s appeal against Kalshi in September 2025 and has not released its opinion yet.