Prediction Markets on Pace for $1 Trillion Volume by 2030, Reports Say

Prediction markets have experienced an eye-popping growth spurt in 2025, with record-breaking trading volume, institutional engagement, an increasing number of entrants, regulatory progress, and growing mainstream awareness and adoption.

The rapid industry expansion isn’t likely to slow down in 2026 and beyond according to a trio of reports released this week. The reports from analysts at top bank holding company Citizens Financial Group and gaming research and consulting firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) forecast exponential trading volume and revenue growth in the coming years.

The third report, a collaborative effort from crypto-focused market-making and trading firm Keyrock and Dune Analytics, zeroes in on how things like market accuracy and customer retention are helping prediction markets grow from a niche novelty into foundational financial and informational infrastructure.

Prediction markets have faced obstacles this year, most notably ones initiated by state gaming regulators and tribal gaming entities who are trying to prevent sports event contracts from being offered in their jurisdictions. While those markets have been important volume drivers, all three analyses issued this week stress the importance of the continued growth of non-sports markets.

Those markets could not only offset volume and engagement losses from any forthcoming sports restrictions; they are also crucial for prediction markets’ long-term sustainability and expansion.

Citizens forecasts annual revenue to top $10B by 2030

The report from Citizens analysts, led by Devin Ryan, estimates that current revenue for the entire prediction market industry is at about $2 billion annually. The analysts write that revenues will likely grow fivefold in the next four years, topping $10 billion by 2030.

The key areas of growth will come from more institutional engagement with the markets, with companies and investors drawn to prediction markets as clean and efficient hedging and risk-management opportunities. Citizens sees prediction markets following a growth path similar to ETFs, options and swaps, and says that they could become as integral to the financial infrastructure.

“Prediction markets appear poised to become a durable and high growth part of global capital markets and financial architecture,” Ryan writes in the report. “Their economic significance is ultimately rooted in the same principle that drove the growth of options and derivatives over the past 50 years — when investors can express views more precisely, markets become more efficient.”

The Citizens analysts wrote that as more brokers, crypto exchanges and traditional financial institutions come to embrace and integrate prediction markets, economic and financial markets will eventually overtake sports markets to become leading volume drivers.

“Prediction markets will transition from primarily a speculative curiosity today (albeit rapidly growing) to a mainstream financial tool,” the report states.

“We are in the very early days, people are focused on sports because that is where the activity is,” Ryan told Bloomberg. “I think that is missing the bigger picture. The bigger prize is going to be the broader prediction markets around things that influence the economy or companies.”

EKG says overall trading volume could increase 2,400%

EKG’s “U.S. Prediction Markets: How Big, How Fast, What’s Next?” report is described as “a structured analysis of the emerging U.S. prediction market ecosystem.” The EKG analysts say that annual prediction market trading volume worldwide could reach $1 trillion by 2030. Some current projections put overall 2025 trading volume at around $40 billion, so a bump up to EKG’s projection would be a staggering 2,400% increase.

Similar to the Citizens report, EKG anticipates overall trading volume to be less reliant on sports markets in the future, something they say is vital to prediction market endurance. The analysts estimate sports currently accounts for up to 80% of event contract trading. That, they say, could decrease to about 44% long term, a reflection less on lowered interest and more on “growth in categories like finance/crypto, politics, news, and culture/entertainment.”

EKG’s analysts say much of the growth of non-sports markets will come from integration with crypto and fintech platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood, as well as a greater cultural presence, fueled by things like CNBC and CNN’s recent deals with Kalshi to integrate markets into news coverage.

With sports still projected to be a heavy volume driver, Eilers & Krejcik partner and strategic advisor Chris Grove warned that outside factors could affect their projections.

“Numerous factors, most notably legal and regulatory challenges, could delay or derail the growth of prediction markets,” Grove told CNBC. “But the fundamental elements of consumer demand and an array of diverse brands looking to meet that demand are clearly in place.”

Keyrock/Dune report suggests biggest growth is from non-sports markets

The Keyrock and Dune report, “Prediction Markets: The Next Frontier of Financial Markets,” avoids speculation on exact future volume and revenue figures, but does suggest that the year-over-year growth seen this year is likely to continue. While spotlighting prediction market accuracy, adoption, usefulness, and customer retention, the report also makes the case that the growth is being driven more by non-sports markets.

The 75-page Keyrock/Dune report notes that monthly prediction market notional volume has grown 130x since early 2024, going from under $100 million to over $13 billion in 2025. In that time period, transactions have increased 180x and the number of monthly active users has gone from 4,000 to over 612,000.

Keying in on the two top platforms, the analysis found that around 85% of Kalshi’s notional volume is from sports, while sports only accounts for 39% of the volume at Polymarket, where it’s followed closely by politics (34%).

But, the analysts say, year-to-date growth on both Kalshi and Polymarket is being led by non-sports markets. The report says that, by volume, economic/financial markets have grown 905% and tech/science markets have grown 1,637%. Economic and culture markets lead the platform’s open interest expansion, “signaling rising use for macro hedging and longer-horizon positioning,” the report states.

The Keyrock/Dune report concludes by saying that prediction markets are one of the first crypto-native products to break through to the mainstream. As we see higher rates of visibility and adoption, especially through integrations across finance and media, the markets will “evolve into practical hedging infrastructure.”

“Institutions, companies, and individuals gain a direct way to manage event risk, from elections and macro data to regulation and product launches, without relying on indirect proxies,” the report concludes. “What feels novel today may soon become routine. When checking the odds becomes as natural as checking headlines, prediction markets will have reshaped how uncertainty is priced, understood, and acted upon.”

Non-sports growth could be key to prediction market endurance

With sports event contracts overwhelmingly being the most popular markets at top U.S. platform Kalshi, some observers have been skeptical about the industry’s ability to sustain its current explosive growth pattern if restrictions are put in place. But the analytical reports issued this week suggest there is indeed life beyond sports in the blossoming prediction market space.

Even sports betting companies entering the prediction market space seem aware of the importance of not solely relying on sports event contracts. Well-established derivatives marketplace CME Group is facilitating the prediction markets for the forthcoming prediction trading platform from FanDuel and, at least initially, the just-launched DraftKings Predictions.

While sports contracts are a key part of those new products, unsurprisingly given both platforms’ sports-focused user bases, DraftKings Predictions also has several financial and economic markets at launch.

“Sports event contracts are a huge part of the overall volume in the industry today, and it’s been an exciting start,” Jeanine Hightower-Sellitto, VP and General Manager of DraftKings Predictions, told Prediction News. “But the industry didn’t get started with sports. They came at a later date, so I think there’s still tremendous potential for the markets to develop over time, even without sports.”