Possible KPMG Insider ID’d on Polymarket
Polymarket researcher EventWaves published a list of suspicious company earnings accounts on Tuesday.
They included account addresses that placed large trades on companies that had been audited by KPMG. Some of the accounts with small trades on other companies increased their trade sizes on KPMG-audited companies.
EventWaves was prompted to explore the accounts by a Polymarket market maker’s suspicions in a Discord channel.
Compelling evidence here of trading ahead of earnings announcements by a KPMG insider https://t.co/kudWOJLqW1
— Rajiv Sethi (@rajivatbarnard) February 27, 2026
On Friday, Columbia University Economics professor Rajiv Sethi called EventWaves’ report “compelling evidence” of “trading ahead of earnings announcements.”
These revelations came during a week of insider trading news for the prediction market industry.
Industry split over insider trading
Kalshi announced the outcomes of two insider trading cases on Wednesday. The exchange fined former California gubernatorial candidate Kyle Langford and one of Mr. Beast’s editors for trading with knowledge others could not have had access to. Langford posted his trade and encouraged others to bet on his victory in May 2025.
The same day, the CEO of another prediction market platform, Check Price, announced he would focus on a new platform without know-your-customer (KYC) requirements. It would be built on Solana and cater to crypto traders who want to keep their personal data from large companies.
While the prediction market industry draws battle lines over which guardrails to implement, the battle over whether all event contracts are under the CFTC’s jurisdiction.
Trump’s tariffs and Kalshi’s cases
On Feb. 20, the Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) was unconstitutional. Learning Resources, Inc v. Trump hinged on how much authority Congress gave to the president to act unilaterally.
Both New Jersey and Kalshi filed opposing briefs disagreeing about how the tariff case applied to their sides.
The Trump Tariffs decision by SCOTUS has already sparked a disagreement between New Jersey and Kalshi as to its applicability to prediction markets. Competing CA3 filings highlight the divide as to whether the majority’s application of the major questions doctrine extends to PMs. pic.twitter.com/aquAzuInub
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) February 26, 2026
New Jersey argued that Congress was unlikely to give a “sweeping grant” of authority to the Executive branch. Kalshi countered that the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) explicitly gave the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over swaps. That exclusive jurisdiction was distinct from the “vague language” at issue in Learning Resources.