New Bill and Criminal Enforcement Target Prediction Markets
Sen. Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar have introduced the latest bill targeting prediction markets.
Both lawmakers held a press conference announcing a bill that would prohibit markets on government action or situations where insiders either know the outcome or control the outcome.
It’s the latest bill to be introduced seeking to limit the events that markets can be based on. Rep. Mike Levin and Sen. Adam Schiff introduced a bill prohibiting CFTC-regulated exchanges from listing a contract that “involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, or an individual’s death.”
Rep. Ritchie Torres also introduced his own bill prohibiting insider trading on prediction markets at the beginning of 2026.
These bills coincide with a new survey conducted by the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM).
People who’ve heard of prediction markets have questions
According to AIBM’s survey, 61% of respondents and 41% of men aged 18-24 view prediction markets as closer to gambling than investing.
The survey also asked a subgroup of respondents who had indicated they were “Very Familiar”, “Somewhat Familiar”, or “Have heard of, but that’s it” regarding prediction markets. These respondents were asked how financially risky purchasing event contracts was.
Forty-seven percent of respondents who were at least somewhat familiar with prediction markets considered it “Very risky.” Forty-four percent thought it was “somewhat risky.” Only 37% of men aged 18-24 considered buying event contracts “very risky.”
The other highlight was how few respondents considered prediction markets good for society. Thirty-eight percent of respondents considered prediction markets bad for society. However, 52% of respondents considered online sports betting bad for society.
About a third of respondents answered “don’t know” about prediction markets’ impact on society. So, both pro and anti-prediction market groups have room for public relations gains.
Arizona files Kalshi’s first criminal charges
Arizona’s Attorney General announced the first criminal charges filed against Kalshi. Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 misdemeanor charges against Kalshi for “operating an illegal gambling business in Arizona” and “election wagering.”
These are the first criminal charges filed against Kalshi in any court in the United States (h/t @BobbyAllyn). Raises the stakes considerably on both Kalshi’s motion for preliminary injunction filed in AZ federal court yesterday and on the upcoming CA9 oral argument. https://t.co/LW7Qgr2hgA
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) March 17, 2026
>>>>>>>>>>>>>Kalshi has already filed for a preliminary injunction in Arizona’s federal court and has an upcoming argument in the Ninth Circuit. Kalshi has not yet filed for relief from the Supreme Court’s emergency docket.