Massachusetts Judge Provides ‘Preliminary Views’ in Kalshi Case
A Massachusetts state judge revealed the early outline of a potential deal between Kalshi and the Commonwealth on Tuesday.
Judge Christopher Barry-Smith’s “preliminary views” on Kalshi’s limitations in Massachusetts included a 30-day deadline instead of the 90 days Kalshi had hoped for. Barry-Smith also split a crucial difference between Kalshi and the Commonwealth concerning “new” contracts.
Massachusetts wanted to prohibit all trading of currently held sports contracts. Kalshi’s lawyers argued that the restriction was antithetical to an exchange, which is built on the ability to buy and sell contracts live. Barry-Smith’s proposed preliminary injunction (PI) would allow users to sell their positions, but not enlarge existing ones.
NEW: Massachusetts Superior Court Judge Christopher Barry-Smith provides his “preliminary views” as to the likely scope of the preliminary injunction against Kalshi:
1) Given Kalshi’s “nationwide business,” Kalshi must use “technological controls” to ensure that sports event… pic.twitter.com/I9qFGYX2SK
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) January 27, 2026
The injunction, however, has not yet gone into effect. Both parties still have until Feb. 4 to submit their proposed agreements before Barry-Smith makes a ruling.
Kalshi seeks stay
At the same time that Kalshi seeks a more favorable preliminary injunction, the exchange is also seeking a stay pending appeal. Kalshi hopes to avoid enforcement from the state as it fights the judge’s initial ruling.
The PI motion and the stay will be decided close together. Barry-Smith said in his Friday hearing that he would decide the terms of the PI before considering his position on the emergency stay.
These delays are favorable for Kalshi leading up to the Super Bowl, which was a $1.2 billion event on Polymarket in 2025. With a year’s lead time, the Super Bowl is expected to be a multi-billion-dollar event for prediction markets. It’s especially valuable in Massachusetts given the Patriots’ victory over the Broncos in the AFC Championship game.
Upcoming circuit court decisions
Massachusetts is the most important state case, since it’s the only one in which the state has gained early victories. Federal circuit courts remain the most important for the prediction market industry overall.
The Third Circuit opinion, which held oral arguments in September 2025, is expected any day. Its arguments focused on the definition of swaps, which plays to Kalshi’s favor. Should Kalshi win in the Third Circuit and lose in the Fourth or Ninth, the odds of a Supreme Court hearing rise.
In any case, the industry still has some time before it feels widespread consequences in court.