Rubio’s Venezuela Gamble Could Make or Break His 2028 Bid
United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio will either become a hero or the face of Trump’s foreign policy failures. That image will determine his chances in the 2028 presidential race.
After the U.S. strikes against Venezuela on Jan. 3, Rubio’s 2028 Republican nomination odds rose from roughly 11% to 18% across top prediction markets platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. The United States captured Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, removing the socialist dictator from power.
Now comes the harder part: turning a successful operation into an adequate long term political outcome. It’s a tall task not just for the Trump administration, but for Rubio specifically.
Rubio has been put in charge of managing Venezuela, among other things, as Trump organizes American energy companies to extract Venezuela’s oil.
Meanwhile, Venezuela’s operation revives Iraq-era fears, during which the United States toppled a dictator but failed to turn the country into a stable democracy. Trump and Rubio have a chance to show that Venezuela won’t become another quagmire fueled by American hubris.
However, the odds are not on the side of Venezuela’s democratic opposition.
Maduro’s party remains in power
In July 2024, Maduro stole the presidency from opposition leader Edmundo González. Even though González proved Maduro won through fraud, Maduro held onto power.
Maria Machado was the opposition’s original presidential candidate. She won her party’s primary in 2023, but Maduro banned her from running for office. Machado has not stopped pushing for democracy in Venezuela. She remains seen as the rightful president by the democratic world based on her original candidacy and the proven fraud of Venezuela’s 2024 election.
However, Kalshi traders only give her a 21% chance of leading the country in 2026. Meanwhile, Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president, has a 53% chance of leading Venezuela by the end of the year. Machado has attempted to court Trump by gifting him her Nobel Peace Prize, but that may not be enough to earn backing from the White House.
A failure to install a legitimate democratic leader would be a disaster for both Venezuela and Rubio.
New U.S. strikes unlikely
Trump has threatened Rodríguez with a fate similar to Maduro’s if she does not comply with U.S. demands. But Polymarket traders give the United States only a 29% chance of U.S. forces entering Venezuela again by June 30. Replacing the remains of Maduro’s regime by force doesn’t appear to be on the table as of mid-January 2026.
Trump’s broken campaign promise to remove the United States from foreign conflicts has put Rubio in a difficult position. Rubio cannot claim to have brought democracy to Venezuela if Maduro’s party maintains power. Machado’s pleas to respect the wishes of Venezuela’s voters further highlight the gap between Trump’s rhetoric and the reality on the ground.
If Rubio can support Venezuela’s democratic movement and bring stability to the country, it will be a major accomplishment added to his presidential resume. But Rubio is also set to bear any blame if Venezuela collapses.
Political traders should expect Rubio’s odds to be particularly volatile as Venezuela’s government transition unfolds.