Kalshi UFC Resolution Echoes 2025 Oscars Viewership Market

Resolving a market on an initial outcome may be a clean way to decide when an event has occurred. But that method hasn’t always reflected the final outcome of those events.

During UFC 327, Chris Padilla was initially declared the victor over MarQuel Mederos. Kalshi resolved its market accordingly, paying out to Padilla contracts and paying nothing for Mederos contracts.

However, the scorecards were corrected to reflect a draw instead of a victory for one of the fighters. Kalshi’s market rules state that a draw would be paid out at 50/50 prices. The exchange’s rules also state that the initial decision will be used to resolve the market.

Its market clarification states in part that “…any revisions after Expiration will not be considered.” This is the same rule that caused resolution controversy in another market in 2025.

Oscars 2025 viewership controversy

After the 2025 Oscars ceremony, the New York Times reported that 18 million people had watched the event. Kalshi’s contracts on whether Oscar viewership would be above 19.5 million people resolved to No.

Then revised viewership figures indicated that 19.7 million people had watched the Oscars, which would have resolved certain contracts differently. Kalshi did not change its market resolution. The market’s rules stated that the initial release would be counted, not future revisions.

It was a controversial call for traders in that market, some of whom believed the market outcome should have been revised.

Contracts or contests

Resolving contracts on an initial outcome draws a clear line between an event and its ending. It gives the exchange a clear side to pay out without worrying about waffling between two outcomes.

Still, it highlights the limits of prediction markets that can be created by an exchange’s rules. Kalshi may have not only followed its rules, but also remained consistent over time.

That does not change the fact that someone looking for an event’s outcome would be misled by checking Kalshi’s contract settlement instead of reporting that included the initial victory followed by the draw.