Kalshi Nears $1 Billion in Trade Volume on Superbowl LX

Seattle wasn’t the only winner of Super Bowl LX.

Kalshi and Polymarket saw over $550 million in trade volume on the Super Bowl’s winner. $500 million of that volume came from Kalshi, while Polymarket recorded about $55 million in trade volume the morning after the Super Bowl. Across all of its Super Bowl markets, Kalshi reached just under $1 billion in trade volume.

Halftime show contracts also led to tens of millions in trade volume. Kalshi’s Bad Bunny’s halftime opener market had over $113 million in trade volume. The market on which brands would advertise during the Super Bowl hit over $72 million in trade volume. Even the market on who would perform at the Super Bowl made it to over $47 million in trade volume.

The market on who would perform also had a noteworthy resolution dispute that refocused the prediction market industry on the rulemaking differences between Kalshi and Polymarket.

Did Cardi B perform at the Super Bowl?

Cardi B appeared in a cameo alongside Jessica Alba, Karol G, and other celebrities during Bad Bunny’s halftime performance. She danced alongside other celebrities watching the halftime show. She also did not sing or perform in the halftime show. Kalshi’s rulebook for this market defined a performance as follows:

…The performer appears on stage or in the official broadcast/stream [c]AND Performs (including dancing, singing, DJ-ing, e.g.) AND Is either a scheduled performer OR makes a guest appearance during another artist’s performance

Cardi B appeared on the stage, but was not a scheduled performer or guest performer. She was as much a performer as Pedro Pascal was in the onstage celebrity area.

However, Polymarket resolved its Cardi B market to Yes, while Kalshi suspended trading and settled the contracts at the last-traded prices. Yes holders were paid 26 cents per share, and No holders were paid 74 cents per share.

The rule dispute shows how the same event can be interpreted, or just resolved, in opposite directions. Dancing in a brief cameo alongside other celebrities can be defined as a “performance” depending on the viewer’s definition or interests. Defining events is an ongoing challenge for prediction markets as they embrace increasingly exotic contracts.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks grow together

Gambling Insider reported that regulated sportsbooks saw about $1.7 billion in handle on the Super Bowl. The site also reported that Kalshi’s Super Bowl markets reached approximately $1 billion in trade volume across its Big Game markets.

Prediction markets have grown tremendously, but they haven’t made regulated sports betting obsolete. A Harvard working paper found that in the U.K., betting exchange Betfair failed to put sportsbooks out of business. The exchange and sportsbooks competed on price, but sportsbooks also hedged on Betfair as Underdog purported to do on Kalshi.

Kalshi and other prediction markets have shown themselves to be formidable competitors to sportsbooks. Prediction markets also enjoy regulatory benefits that sportsbooks seek, like lower tax rates and access to markets that haven’t legalized sports betting. Competition is shaping up to be fierce going into March Madness.