Kalshi enters Week 6 reeling from it’s biggest slate yet in terms of NFL trading volume. The prediction market platform logged $395 million in trades across its markets for moneylines, spreads, totals, and touchdown props, according to Prediction News’ in-house volume tracker. That means NFL trades grew +14% growth week-over week, despite having two fewer games on the slate.
$312 million of that was done in-game, on the back of a trio of primetime games that produced firework shows and a ripe environments for live trading:
- 49ers at Rams: $68.9M
- Chiefs at Jaguars: $67.8M
- Patriots at Bills: $59.6M
To cap it all off, Kalshi expanded player props beyond touchdowns, adding passing, rushing, and receiving yards ahead of the Monday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Jaguars.
Curiously, the platform’s combo (parlay) builder was absent for Week 5’s MNF game and is still missing Thursday morning ahead of Week 6 kickoff.
Kalshi NFL Week 6 preview
- TNF: Eagles at Giants (PHI -7.5, 40.5 total)
- The low total and sizable spread is a headwind for live volume unless New York can keep pace with the defending Super Bowl champs.
- London: Broncos vs Jets (DEN -6.5, 43.5 total)
- The stand-alone game helps but a lopsided, low scoring script may cap trades.
- SNF: Lions at Chiefs (KC -2.5, 52.5 total)
- The Sunday headliner has plenty of potential for an explosive game environment that churns tens millions in volume.
- MNF doubleheader:
Bills at Falcons (BUF -4.5, 49.5 total) and Bears at Commanders (WAS -4.5, 49.5).
- A pair of games that each of potential to stay tight and score points.
NFL futures Board check-in
- NFL MVP volume: $6.4M through five weeks, as Josh Allen (49¢) leads and Patrick Mahomes (14¢) sits second. Baker Mayfield has surged from 4¢ → 11¢ as a longshot-turned-contender.
- Super Bowl volume: $19.3M to date.
What the Week 5 tape says
Game scripts matter, and last week couldn’t have played out more perfectly on primetime television. Kalshi is growing, but it still may be tough to match last week’s volume.
Meanwhile, props are expanding on the prediction market platform, but how much liquidity they attract is still a major question. It’s well known that props are beatable at sportsbooks, and books combat this by limiting players with small max bets on these types of wagers. Liquidity providers on prediction markets are even more exposed as users can grab as many shares as are available, which may deter props from actually scaling.
If the liquidity is there, props will undoubtedly be major feature of Kalshi’s parlay product — if and when it returns.
