J.P. Morgan Chase Considers Prediction Markets on Select Events

J.P. Morgan Chase is the latest financial company eyeing the prediction market industry. However, J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon pushed back on some of the most popular event contracts.

Dimon said in an interview with CBS Evening News that they “weren’t going to be in sports” or “politics.” He also argued that “for the most part, it’s [event contract trading] more like gambling.” Dimon noted there were exceptions where traders are “deeply knowledgeable” and can use the event contract as an investment instrument.

The Federal Reserve Board released a paper highlighting Kalshi’s accuracy ahead of Fed rate decisions. That came during the same period as new legislation targeting insider trading and markets lawmakers believe could be readily susceptible to manipulation.

Other prediction markets remain focused on economic and financial markets.

Metaculus launches Market Pulse for Q2

Metaculus announced the next round of its Market Pulse forecasting competition on Wednesday.

Traders will compete for a $7,500 prize for accurately forecasting different economic and financial indicators. Questions will be submitted on a rolling basis, and the contest will end on June 12.

Metaculus users submit their probability estimates instead of trading contracts. Users are evaluated based on past accuracy. Metaculus contests also allow traders to enter bots into the contest, should they choose to develop one.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has adjusted its fee structure after a buggy rollout.

Polymarket adjusts fee structure

On March 31, Polymarket implemented its new fees on all market categories except geopolitics. According to Binance, the fees were initially based on USD-based taker volume instead of share quantity.

Polymarket’s new fees follow a $600 million investment from Intercontinental Exchange on Friday. While Kalshi reportedly generates $1.5 billion in annualized revenue, Polymarket has still had to find a path to revenue generation.

By Tuesday morning, a payment analytics account noted that Polymarket had collected $600,000 in fees. Polymarket updated its fee formula again on Wednesday, obscuring the financial picture that can be drawn from the early fee rollout.

It’s changed again to:

fee = C × feeRate × p × (1 – p)

No more exponent now, I can’t keep up 🤣 https://t.co/c7Ty5qeJDN

— dash (@datadashboards) April 1, 2026