Gemini Launches Prediction Markets En Route To ‘Financial Super App’

Gemini, the cryptocurrency exchange started by billionaire twins Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss in May 2014, officially took its prediction market product live on Monday. Notably, Gemini Predictions is staying away from sports offerings — at least for now — beginning with markets on crypto, economy, politics/culture, and some AI/tech.

Gemini filed for designated contract market (DCM) status for Gemini Titan LLC in May, and received its CFTC approval just last Wednesday. The Winklevosses’ crypto business has made plenty of headlines of late, going public with its IPO offering on Sept. 12.

However, $GEMI continues to operate at a loss and the stock is down more than 50% from its IPO price of $28. Investors and observers are watching closely to see how prediction markets and other new ventures impact the company’s profitability trajectory and stock price.

Gemini is clearly bullish on the prediction market potential, and its place within the fast-growing industry. According to the press release:

“Gemini Predictions leverages the wisdom of the crowd and the power of markets to more accurately forecast the future. They reward market participants for their truthful insights and also help them to better prepare for the future by aggregating and disseminating correct information.

“The move into this nascent and burgeoning frontier continues Gemini’s march toward building a one-stop financial super app for customers.”

Gemini Exchange customers in the U.S. can now trade event contracts, on a fee-free basis for a limited time, using USD on both web and iOS with Android to follow soon. Here’s a look at some of the markets:

Can new ventures lift profits for Gemini?

Gemini posted a net Q3 loss of $159.5 million despite revenue more than doubling year-over-year to over $50 million for the quarter. Goldman Sachs analysts have projected Gemini wouldn’t show a profit on an adjusted basis until 2028 at the earliest.

But the company is hopeful the prediction market opportunity can help boost revenues. During their Q3 earnings call, Cameron Winklevoss shared their outlook on the prospects:

“We’re very excited about these markets. We think it’s very early days,” said Cameron. “It reminds us a lot of what Bitcoin felt like in 2012 when we first discovered it. And this idea that you can essentially build a market on anything, any kind of event, is fascinating and really a boundless opportunity.”

The Gemini Predictions site launch also follows a strong company push into new credit card offerings that incorporate diverse crypto rewards. All of these moves contribute to plans to offer its own “super app,” or all-in-one financial ecosystem housed on a single platform. According to the launch announcement:

“The move marks Gemini’s latest step in building our one-stop super app where customers can trade crypto, stake, earn crypto credit card rewards, stablecoin rewards, and more.”

Strong timing for crypto-native fintech businesses

Gemini’s entry into prediction markets is well-timed with both prediction markets and crypto regulation gaining momentum. The GENIUS Act signed into law by President Trump in July sets the stage for regulatory oversight of stablecoins and opens the way for on-chain collateral on prediction market exchanges. Earlier this month, the CFTC announced a pilot program allowing some digital assets to be used as collateral in derivatives markets, just after Kalshi launched tokenized prediction markets on the Solana blockchain.

The continued merging of crypto and regulated financial markets should prove beneficial for companies like Gemini that can capitalize on the integration of DeFI and regulated financial markets. But the competition will be thick.

In addition to platforms like Robinhood and Webull, additional direct competitors include:

• Coinbase, which launched its “everything” Base App in beta earlier this year.
• Bitnomial, which announced on Friday its CFTC approval as a DCM plus clearinghouse (DCO).

And Kalshi plans to launch more integrations like the one it just announced with Phantom crypto wallet last Thursday. Phantom Prediction Markets, powered by Kalshi, brings prediction market trading directly to 20 million existing crypto users. And that includes sports event contracts, which are the focus of ongoing court cases between state gaming regulators and major exchanges like Kalshi, Robinhood, and Crypto.com.