Event Contracts Get Limited Retail Approval in Canada

Canada will have its first round of event contracts targeted at retail traders soon.

Wealthsimple received approval to offer what will be called forecast contracts on economic indicators, financial markets, and climate data. Sports and politics will be prohibited.

Interactive Brokers has been able to offer these contracts, but The Globe and Mail reports that Wealthsimple’s retail focus contrasts with Interactive Brokers’ institutional focus.

Canada’s limited approach mirrors the desires of a growing number of U.S. legislators on both sides of the aisle.

Congress pays greater attention to prediction markets

As of Wednesday, March 25, 11 bills and one amendment have been introduced to limit prediction markets in some way. Four are companion bills filed simultaneously in the House and Senate. Three bills are bipartisan, including:

• Blake Moore’s bill (R – UT)
• Adam Schiff (D – CA) and John Curtis (R – UT)
• Nikki Budzinski (D – IL) and Adrian Smith (R – NE)

Kalshi has also had to block Nevada users from using its platform. Kalshi prohibits trading in Nevada on political, sports, and entertainment contracts. Some users can reportedly get around the restrictions by changing their account addresses in Nevada.

Even high-profile political analysts are souring on prediction markets.

Eurasia Group prohibits prediction market trading

On Monday, Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer announced that employees would not be allowed to trade on prediction markets. Bremmer went on to call prediction markets “corrosive for civil society” and “probably more dangerous than social media for democracy.”

a little something from all of us at ‘
eurasia group… pic.twitter.com/hltnyoiIfu

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) March 23, 2026

One of the value propositions that prediction markets pitch is how good they can be for hedging and forecasting world events. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has claimed that users in the Middle East check his site to “decide whether we sleep near the bomb shelter.”

That Bremmer sees far more harm than good is a direct challenge to the public utility argument for war and world event contracts. The prediction market industry is making increasingly influential enemies in its mainstream era.