“Emilia Pérez,” the Jacques Audiard-directed genre-defying French film has received top awards at international film festivals, yet you wouldn’t be able to tell by looking at top prediction markets.
With 17 films in the running on the Oscar 2025 Best Picture nominations Kalshi market, “Emilia Pérez” is nowhere to be seen. The film stars household names like Zoe Saladana and Selena Gomez, both of whom are getting Oscar buzz as well. Yet, the film is not on any of Kalshi’s Oscar markets.
“Emilia Pérez” follows a former Mexican cartel leader who undergoes gender transition surgery. The film is a dark comedy and crime musical film and this surprising mix of genres has gotten the movie awards buzz.
But how much buzz does it take to appear in Oscars prediction markets?
Why is ‘Emilia Pérez’ missing from prediction markets?
One could say that it hasn’t been released in theaters or on a streaming platform yet. As a result, it’s not in the Oscars prediction market yet. It’s set to have a limited theater release in the US on Nov. 1 and on Netflix on Nov. 13.
Selena Gomez x EMILIA PÉREZ
— Emilia Pérez Film (@EmiliaPerezFilm) September 23, 2024
In select theaters this November and on Netflix November 13 in the US, UK and Canada. pic.twitter.com/i6oHSgYRhi
However, other movies on the Oscars market haven’t been released yet either.
Blitz is in the running for Kalshi’s Best Picture nomination predictions and will only be released on Nov. 1st. The Robert Pattinson-led Mickey 17 is coming out on Jan. 17, 2025, but it is already there as well.
And it can’t be because of a lack of success on the international film circuit. At Cannes, the movie premiered to an 11-minute standing ovation. The film also won the Jury Award and the female ensemble won the Best Actress award. It also premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival and New York Film Festival.
Selena Gomez receives standing ovation at the Cannes Film Festival following the premiere of ‘EMILIA PEREZ’ pic.twitter.com/ml001PqQnT
— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) May 18, 2024
The film did get mixed reviews. However, most note the movie’s creativity and high energy as its strongest features. Variety describes the movie as “the Palme d’Or winner’s exhilarating Spanish-language (half-sung) portrait of a former cartel boss’s life-changing transformation.” While Entertainment Weekly calls the film a “joyfully erratic opera swirled with a soapy melodrama.” But The Gaurdian’s less positive review calls the movie “a thoroughly implausible yarn about a Mexican cartel leader…is carried along by its cheesy Broadway energy.”
However, mixed reviews haven’t stopped other films from being on the Kalshi market. “Joker: Folie à Deux” premiered to mixed reviews and has been in the prediction market’s options since it was launched on Mar. 8. But to be fair, this sequel is well-known and highly anticipated
While “Emilia Pérez” may have been highly anticipated in some circles, it certainly doesn’t have the same attention as big names like other Oscar prediction market contenders “Gladiator 2” and “Challengers.”
But the latest news should land “Emilia Pérez” in the running – it is officially in the Oscar race. The film has been selected as France’s official entry for the next Oscar’s Best International Feature Film. Variety also reported that the titular character played by Karla Sofía Gascón, will be submitted for lead actress consideration. The rest of the female ensemble including Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, and Adriana Paz, will be submitted in the supporting actress category. And it has been submitted to the Adapted Screenplay category, which is believed to be a less competitive category than the Original Screenplay category.
As “Emilia Pérez” gears up for its limited release in the U.S., anticipation is building for a film that has already garnered top awards on the international stage. It will be interesting to see if “Emilia Pérez” can translate its festival success into a spot in the Oscar conversation and whether it will finally show up on Kalshi, allowing movie-watchers to bet on its chances.
