DraftKings has applied to become a member of the National Futures Association (NFA), the United States’ self-governing body of derivatives organizations. Its pending membership, filed under the name “DraftKings Predict,” signals a potential expansion into the regulated prediction market industry. While DraftKings has not announced concrete plans for its “Predict” product, CEO Jason Robins hinted at the company’s interest in sports event contracts during its Q4 2024 earnings call in last month, noting DraftKings was “watching it very carefully.”
If approved, DraftKings could become the first company to offer products under both state gambling regulations and federal financial oversight from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
DraftKings also announced that it had an average of 4.8 million monthly unique paying customers during Q4 2024. This move comes amid growing interest in prediction markets, particularly after a CFTC-regulated exchange, Kalshi, had the fourth-largest Super Bowl betting handle. After the 2024 presidential election, Robins called election betting “something we’ll plan on looking at ahead of next election, for sure.”
The best defense is a good offense
Rather than allow Kalshi or Crypto.com to acquire its customers, DraftKings seems to be adding to its betting ecosystem to keep its customers under the DraftKings brand. As DraftKings considers its move into prediction markets, it could keep more of its customers under its roof and out-maneuver FanDuel, which (barely) leads DraftKings in market share.
DraftKings has a history of expanding into emerging verticals, having launched products or acquired companies in microbetting, horse racing, iLottery, NFTs, and iCasino. Although DraftKings discontinued its NFT marketplace in July 2024, it has found success in the other gaming verticals.
If DraftKings manages to overlap with popular financial products, then the line between gambling and speculative finance will do more than blur—it’ll disappear.
