Crypto.com is delivering an unexpected gift to sports fans: the launch of sports futures contracts across all 50 states, allowing users to make real money predictions for the Super Bowl through its derivatives trading feature called Sports Event Trading.
🏈 Predicting the outcome of The Big Game just got a lot more interesting
— Crypto.com (@cryptocom) December 23, 2024
Turn correct predictions into profit with Sports Event Trading, now available across the US 🇺🇸
🏆 US$100 payment for each correct event contract you own
✔️ Simple Yes/No decision
🔒 CFTC-regulated… pic.twitter.com/gUaHyycOnf
“Don’t bet against the house — trade the odds instead,” Crypto.com’s CRO Kris Marszalek posted on X.
The company bills the product as the “first sports outcome market regulated in all 50 U.S. states.”
“Sports event trading offers an entirely new platform for U.S. users to engage nationwide at Crypto.com and in the Crypto.com app,” said Marszalek. “This unique financial product allows users to trade their prediction on the outcome of a sports event. It’s a fundamentally new concept for sports, and we’re thrilled to be the first regulated platform in the U.S. to offer it to our users.”
The sweeping move is unprecedented, further blurring the lines between prediction markets and sports betting.
Since the 2018 Court decision to overturn the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), 38 states have legalized sports betting in some form. Thirty states have legalized online sports betting, leaving 20 states without access to sports betting on smartphones and computers—until now.
To be clear, betting on the outcome of future events with prediction markets is not considered “gambling” in the traditional sense. The latter includes betting “against the house,” such as at sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel.
For now, Crypto.com has only launched markets for the “Big Game” (aka the Super Bowl); however, it’s unclear for how long these markets will be available.
Not so fast
Crypto.com submitted its request to the CFTC on Thursday, Dec. 19, meaning it is unlikely that they have been approved by the regulator, which has typically taken a conservative approach to defining “events.”
Earlier this month, Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, briefly launched event contracts related to Luigi Mangione, the alleged shooter of UnitedHealthcare CEO, only to halt them a few days later at the request of the CFTC.
Crypto.com’s sports event contracts may face a similar fate; however, help may be on the way.
While expanding into sports may have seemed futile under the current CFTC, the incoming presidential administration is poised to install a new regulatory regime that is friendly to alternative institutions such as crypto and prediction markets. President-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering Brain Quitnenz, who currently serves on Kalshi’s board, to lead the CFTC.
First but not the last
Kalshi has not launched event contracts related to the outcome of a sports game, though the platform has facilitated trading on head coaching jobs. Robinhood, which dipped its toes into the water of election betting last fall, expressed interest in expanding its event contract offerings to include sports during its Investor Day on Dec. 4.
Sports trading on Polymarket, an unregulated prediction market that runs on blockchain technology but is not technically available to U.S. customers, has soared and become the platform’s most popular category by volume and transaction, according to Blockworks Research.
More than $1 billion has been traded in Polymarket’s Super Bowl market.
While sports prediction markets may struggle to compete with sportsbooks and their enticing same-game parlay products, make no mistake about it: expanding the definition of event contracts to include sports will be a win for consumers who look to navigate an industry that has been criticized for predatorial tactics.
According to a report last October, 12.7% of Polymarket users are profitable, which may sound small until you compare that to sportsbooks, where only 3-5% of bettors end up in the black—a generous estimate for an industry notorious for banning winning players.
