CFTC Prediction Market Rule Nears Public Debut

The first official CFTC rule governing prediction markets took an important step forward.

A prediction market rule completed its review by the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) on Monday. Once the CFTC releases that rule for public comment, the public will be able to view the CFTC’s proposed rule.

Speedy review at White House OMB of the CFTC’s forthcoming prediction markets rulemaking concept release.
Latest update at OIRA shows their review was completed on Monday. https://t.co/XK9APg1hhq pic.twitter.com/v4FsmzjIcM

— Lydia Beyoud (@ElleBeyoud) March 11, 2026

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig promised to include prediction market rulemaking on his agenda during his future-proofing initiative announcement in January. Selig is expected to release guidance supporting his agency’s jurisdiction over event contracts, including sports contracts.

Meanwhile, prediction markets are still fighting to defend their sports contracts in new state venues.

Kalshi’s Ohio loss and new offense in Iowa

Kalshi lost its motion for a preliminary injunction in Ohio on Monday. The case hinged on the improbability of Congress intending to allow sports wagering on designated contract markets (DCMs) after passing the Dodd-Frank amendments.

Kalshi is appealing its Ohio case to the Sixth Circuit. The exchange is also suing Iowa regulators to stave off enforcement action.

The industry is also still waiting on the Third Circuit opinion, which held oral arguments in September 2025. Regulatory uncertainty has become more acute as prediction markets have continued iterating market standards.

Mentions and other market terms get updates

Kalshi filed an updated rules list for its mention markets. Mentions trader 0xTyrael warned that Kalshi’s mention markets are split between the new set of rules and the old set.

If you are a mentions trader on Kalshi, spend some time this morning reviewing the new contract and understanding the changes before trading

Also be aware that there are still some markets operating on the old contract! Double check before trading!https://t.co/iziACUbDPu

— Tyrael (@0xTyrael) March 9, 2026

The new rules clarify the exchange’s approach to grammatical variations of mention strikes. For example, a speaker who says “immigrants” for a strike listed “immigrant” would resolve that market to ‘Yes.’ There are also rules about market cancellations, event delays, and resulting settlements.

Kalshi has also instituted official rules prohibiting traders from profiting off the death of the subjects of different markets. That is a new approach it took in 2025 and 2026 in certain Charlie Kirk markets and on Iran’s Supreme Leader’s removal from power.