CFTC Goes on Offense, Marex Group Releases New Bond
The CFTC sued Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut over actions those states took to limit Kalshi’s event contracts on sports.
These lawsuits aim to prevent the states from applying gambling laws to contracts traded on designated contract markets (DCMs) like Kalshi.
“The CFTC will continue to safeguard its exclusive regulatory authority over these markets and defend market participants against overzealous state regulators,” said CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig.
Former CFTC General Counsel Rob Schwartz called the CFTC’s lawsuits against the states at this stage “to [his] knowledge…unprecedented.” Sports betting lawyer Daniel Wallach noted that the previous battle over sports betting was a win for the states and tribes.
Prediction markets have institgated an economic civil war pitting the federal government against States, Tribes, and Cities. The last federal vs. state battle over sports betting (Murphy v. NCAA) didn’t end too well for the feds. Neither will this one.
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) April 2, 2026
As the CFTC fights the states head on, the prediction market industry continues to see new products emerge.
Marex’s prediction market-based product
Bloomberg reported that Marex Group released a new “bond-like note” that would pay a 7% coupon based on Nvidia’s size. The principle would be returned in the event of a loss.
Polymarket gives Nvidia a 68% chance of being the world’s largest company by the end of the year. An event contract is an all-or-nothing trade. But Marex’s product limits the potential winnings and losses, avoiding a wholly binary outcome.
Marex is able to offer that type of security, because the company uses derivatives exchanges to hedge its positions. It’s the latest product that is being built on top of prediction markets and shows another path to institutional adoption, especially if exchanges eventually lose sports contracts.
Meanwhile, Polymarket has pushed further into online news as it recovers from its fee rollout.
Polymarket’s new Substack integrations
Polymarket announced that Substack writers would be able to request liquidity information to identify the moment that a news development made the odds move. That tool would allow writers to more closely link prediction market movements with credible news stories.
However, Polymarket is also recovering from its fee rollout. The company released a fee structure higher than previously advertised on March 31. That stumble angered customers and coincided with greater scrutiny of the prediction market industry.