Sabrina Carpenter’s year of success has established her as a staple of the 2024 pop music space. But will her latest single, “Taste,” reach the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100?
These past six months have been huge for Sabrina Carpenter’s career. After being an opener on Taylor Swift’s massive Eras Tour, her fame skyrocketed with the release of her lead single “Espresso.” While the song topped the Pop Airplay chart, it only reached a peak No. 3 position on the Hot 100. This didn’t stop her second single “Please Please Please” from reaching the coveted No. 1 spot on the Hot 100.
Prediction markets don’t seem to think so. For those who don’t know, prediction markets are platforms where users can bet on the outcome of a future event. Kalshi is one of these platforms and has a market specifically about “Taste.” Kalshi’s market has 90% of people believing the song will peak at the No. 2 position with only 6% believing it will peak at No. 1. To be fair, “Taste” has already debuted at the No. 2 spot along with her new album “Short n’ Sweet” debuting at the top of the Billboard 200 chart.

Does Sabrina Carpenter’s “Taste” still have a chance?
“Taste” debuts at the No. 2 spot on the Hot 100 chart with her preceding singles “Please Please Please” and “Espresso” at the No. 3 and No. 4 spots respectively this week. But “Taste” debuting at the No. 2 spot is in no way the end of the game for the single. Her smash “Please Please Please” also debuted at No. 2 before topping the chart in the following week.
This week's top 10 on the #Hot100 (chart dated Sept. 7, 2024).
— billboard charts (@billboardcharts) September 3, 2024
Tap here for details: https://t.co/OP2G6Wzewn pic.twitter.com/KHsxT7DqQ6
To put the success of these songs into perspective, Carpenter is only the second act to have her first three top-five Hot 100s songs chart in the top five simultaneously. The only other act to ever accomplish this feat? The Beatles.
Yes, you heard that right — The Beatles.
Looking at Sabrina Carpenter’s previous singles
We can’t know for sure if the song will hit the No. 1 spot but let’s take a look at the Spotify debuts of all three singles.
“Taste” debuted even higher than “Please Please Please,” boding well for the single’s success. Perhaps, it can follow in its predecessor’s footsteps and reach the peak spot in its second week.
Date of Debut | Song Title | Spotify First Day Streams |
April 11, 2024 | Espresso | 3,670 million |
June 6, 2024 | Please Please Please | 6.317 million |
August 23, 2024 | Taste | 6.809 million |
On June 24, 2024, Billboard revealed that “Please Please Please” had reached the top of the chart. 24 hours earlier, the prediction market had shown there was a 97% probability the song would do so. The morning before Billboard announced “Short n’ Sweet” its No. 1 debut, the market predicted a 75% chance. It seems that there is less confidence in “Taste” reaching the No. 1 spot.
While we can’t be sure if Carpenter’s “Taste” will rise to the top of the chart, we can be sure that Carpenter’s “Short n’ Sweet” has made its mark in Pop music history.