Legal

House defense bill provision would ban military insider trading on prediction markets

Updated 45h ago

The U.S. House Armed Services Committee introduced a provision in the annual defense authorization bill on June 2 that would bar U.S. military personnel and Pentagon staff from trading on prediction markets using non-public information. The measure was drafted following an incident in which a U.S. soldier was accused of insider trading on a classified military operation via prediction markets. The provision targets insider betting by defense staff, though available text did not include details on enforcement mechanisms or which specific platforms would be covered under the prohibition. The legislation would apply broadly to service members and Pentagon employees seeking to exploit classified or otherwise non-public information for financial gain on prediction markets.

Why this matters?

Prediction market operators currently lack any framework for verifying whether traders hold military clearances, forcing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket to build defense-sector exclusion lists from scratch if the provision becomes law this fall.

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