Regulators propose first rules barring terrorism, assassination, and war contracts
Federal regulators proposed the first rules for prediction markets on Wednesday, June 10, 2026, banning event contracts tied to terrorism, assassination, war, and related outcomes. The proposal marks the first formal regulatory framework for this segment of the event-contracts market. The rules would sidestep congressional action by drawing on the Commission's existing authority to determine which contracts serve the public interest and may be listed. The move follows reports of insider betting on Venezuela and other military actions, which drew scrutiny to platforms offering conflict-related markets. The proposal does not specify a timeline for implementation or name individual platforms affected.
Kalshi and Polymarket must now map every existing and planned market against three simultaneous rulemakings with different comment periods. Any contract on conflict, leadership, or violence that fails the public-interest test faces mandatory delisting once final rules take effect.
This terrorism-and-assassination proposal pairs with CFTC's parallel sports-and-terrorism rulemaking to create overlapping compliance tests for Kalshi and Polymarket, forcing both platforms to track three simultaneous comment periods and public-interest analyses.