‘The Bear’s’ Emmy Shocker: Prediction Markets Got It Wrong on Best Comedy

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The 76th Primetime Emmy Awards were on Sept. 17, and while most things were expected, there was a big surprise in the comedy category. “The Bear” entered the Emmy’s as the odds-on favorite to win Best Comedy, but was upset by Max’s original comedy “Hacks”.

“The Bear” is an FX/Hulu series following chef Carmy coming home to Chicago to run his family sandwich shop. Since its release, it has become a critic favorite. The first season has an 88 Metacritic score with the sophomore season receiving a stronger 92 score. 

The first season was an Emmy favorite as well. It broke the record for the most Primetime Emmys won by a comedy series in a single year with 10 wins. This year’s 76th Emmys was no different.

“The Bear” broke its own record with 11 wins this time around after receiving a record-breaking 23 nominations. So if they won all these awards, where was the surprise? 

Emmy Surprise: ‘The Bear’ didn’t win the top prize

While The Bear has been an Emmy favorite since last year, it was also expected to win the best comedy series. At the start of the Emmys, a Polymarket market (a platform where people can bet on the likelihood of an event happening) had users betting that “The Bear” would win the top comedy prize at 90%. To their surprise and most others, “Hacks” won the award instead.

Kalshi prediction market for The Bear winning best Comedy series at the Emmys.

What is ‘Hacks’ about?

“Hacks” is about a legendary stand-up comedian Deborah Vance (Jean Smart), who needs to reinvent herself after losing her Vegas residency. Ava Daniels (Hannah Einbinder) is a young comedic writer sent to Vance to help with her reinvention. Their relationship and how they navigate this are the center stage of this comedy series. 


While “Hacks” winning the top prize was a shocker, you can’t say the show does not have a history of winning Emmys. Over its three-season run, the show was nominated 48 times and has won 9 of them. Jean Smart has won the Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series award for each season so far. However, this is the first time they won the best comedy award.

Why did ‘The Bear’ not win best comedy?

There are a lot of factors that could have affected the voters’ decisions. First of all, “Hacks” season 3 had the recency effect in its favor. The newest season of “Hacks” was released in May 2024, while season 2 of “The Bear” was released back in June 2023.

And while season 2 of “The Bear” was well-received, season 3, which debuted in June 2024, didn’t fare as well. The disappointing reception of season 3 may have affected voters’ perception of the earlier season.

However, there is one other criticism of the Bear that may have swayed the voters more.

Is ‘The Bear’ a comedy or drama series?

“The Bear” has been criticized for being labeled at the Emmys as a “comedy series.” Many viewers and critics don’t agree with this. The Atlantic says “The hit FX/Hulu show is funny, but not ‘ha ha’ funny, and the Emmys may have caught on.” The Rolling Stone says, “Emmys 2024 Voters Finally Decide ‘The Bear’ Is Not a Comedy.”  

There has been such a backlash about this over the last two years that even this year’s Emmy hosts Eugene and Dan Levy made a joke about it in their monologue – “’The Bear’ is nominated for 23 Emmys tonight, making it the most nominated comedy in history. Now, I love the show, I love the show, and I know some of you will be expecting us to make a joke about whether ‘The Bear’ is really a comedy. But in the true spirit of ‘The Bear,’ we will not be making any jokes.”

Beyond just the best comedy series win, there has been equal criticism of Jeremy Allen White, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, and Liza Colón-Zayas’ wins in the comedy acting categories. It is not that they don’t deserve the awards, it’s that critics suggest that they deserve recognition in the drama categories instead. The point is that comedians aren’t getting the awards because of this “miscategorization.’ 

‘The Bear’ still had plenty of success

While the top comedy award was a big shock, the Jeremy Allen White market was right with a 93% chance of winning the Outstanding Lead Actor In A Comedy Series award.

Another surprise for “The Bear “was Liza Colón-Zayas. She won the Outstanding Supporting Actress In A Comedy Series award. With this being Colón-Zayas’ first Emmy nomination, she was up against Holywood icons Carol Burnett (for “Palm Royale”) and Meryl Streep (for “Only Murders in the Building”). This win also made Colón-Zayas the first Latina to win in the category.

While it’s unclear exactly why “The Bear” missed out on the top prize, one thing is certain: it is still an Emmy powerhouse. With its record-breaking nominations and wins, the series continues to be a critical darling. The real question now is whether “The Bear” can maintain its momentum and reclaim the crown at the next Emmys.

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