What to know:
- Adrien Brody has dominated the awards season, but Chalamet’s unexpected SAG victory has made the Best Actor race unclear.
- Since 2010, the SAG and Oscar Best Actor winners have matched every year except for two instances.
- Following the SAG Awards, Chalamet’s forecasted odds jumped from 19% to 31%.
Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet are both actors who have found themselves at the forefront of the latest Oscars. They are seen as the two most likely to win the Best Actor category.
While there are five nominees, only two of them are seen as contenders at this year’s ceremony. The 97th Academy Awards are this Sunday, March 2, 2025, and will be hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Top prediction markets have had Oscar bettors attempting to predict the winner at this weekend’s Oscars. On Kalshi, the market has a trading volume of over $950,000 and has been open since Oct. 25, 2024.
The winnings can be substantial and you want to know everything about each nominee before you bet on the Oscars. Here’s what you need to know.
2025 Best Actor Oscar forecast
Adrien Brody
The Brutalist’s Brody is the frontrunner in the Best Actor category. He stars in the film as László Tóth, a Hungarian architect who survives the Holocaust and emigrates to the United States.
The film is a three-and-a-half-hour work of art that distinguishes itself from the other films in the category. Brody has won every single major precursor award for Best Actor – the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Critics’ Choice – except one.
To many people’s surprise, Chalamet won the Best Actor award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. While the two actors were neck-to-neck in the category at the beginning of the award circuit, the many major awards after suggested Brody was in the lead.
But the SAG Awards, the last major award show before the Oscars, changed the game. Brody’s strong lead of 76% dipped to 67% after the SAG Awards.
Timothée Chalamet
Chalamet stars as the iconic American singer Bob Dylan in A Complete Unkown. With more than five years of prep for the role, Chalamet was praised for his accurate portrayal of the legend in his mannerisms and voice.
Based on the 2015 Elijah Wald book, Dylan Goes Electric!, the movie follows the singer’s path up to his controversial decision to use electric instruments.
Outside of the SAG Awards, Chalamet received a nomination at all the major precursor awards but wasn’t able to win. He won a handful of awards at non-major award shows. And thanks to his SAG win, his forecasted chances shot up from 19% to 31%.
Past Best Actor Oscar winners
At first glance, Chalamet seems to have a chance to win but we have to take a closer look at past winners to see if that’s true.
Year | Oscar Winner | Golden Globe Winner | Critics’ Choice Winner | BAFTA Winner | SAG Winner |
2010 | Colin Firth | Colin Firth | Colin Firth | Colin Firth | Colin Firth |
2011 | Jean Dujardin | George Clooney | George Clooney | Jean Dujardin | Jean Dujardin |
2012 | Daniel Day-Lewis | Daniel Day-Lewis | Daniel Day-Lewis | Daniel Day-Lewis | Daniel Day-Lewis |
2013 | Matthew McConaughey | Matthew McConaughey | Matthew McConaughey | Chiwetel Ejiofor | Matthew McConaughey |
2014 | Eddie Redmayne | Eddie Redmayne | Michael Keaton | Eddie Redmayne | Eddie Redmayne |
2015 | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio | Leonardo DiCaprio |
2016 | Casey Affleck | Casey Affleck | Casey Affleck | Casey Affleck | Denzel Washington |
2017 | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman | Gary Oldman |
2018 | Rami Malek | Rami Malek | Christian Bale | Rami Malek | Rami Malek |
2019 | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix | Joaquin Phoenix |
2020 | Anthony Hopkins | Chadwick Boseman | Chadwick Boseman | Anthony Hopkins | Chadwick Boseman |
2021 | Will Smith | Will Smith | Will Smith | Will Smith | Will Smith |
2022 | Brendan Fraser | Austin Butler | Brendan Fraser | Austin Butler | Brendan Fraser |
2023 | Cillian Murphy | Cillian Murphy | Paul Giamatti | Cillian Murphy | Cillian Murphy |
2024 | TBD | Adrien Brody | Adrien Brody | Adrien Brody | Timothée Chalamet |
Unlike categories like the Oscar for Supporting Actress or Supporting Actor where the winner is fairly clear and straightforward, the Best Actor category is more unclear.
Since 2010, the SAG Awards and the Oscars haven’t lined up only twice. Although, only one of the two times, the SAG Awards was the only one that chose differently from the other five. In 2016, the SAG Awards was the only one to choose Denzel Washington over Casey Affleck.
Either this will be 2016 all over again and the SAG Awards will be the only ones who chose Chalamet, or the Oscars will line up with the SAG Awards. However, since 2010, there hasn’t been an instance where only the Oscars and the SAG Awards were different from the five which may suggest that is less likely.
The subject matter of the movies is also important to note. An All-American blockbuster about a musical icon or a Holocaust emigration art piece – these films are very different and may connect with foreign Academy voters differently from the American ones.
If you want to take your chances and bet against the pack, Chalamet is the better choice. However, Brody is the safer and likelier option.
