What to know:
- Wins at the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, and BAFTAs suggest Zoe Saldaña is almost guaranteed to take home the Oscar.
- While Ariana Grande sits at a distant second in the predictions, Grande’s transformation into Glinda in Wicked has earned her critical praise and major nominations, keeping her in the conversation.
- With over $375,000 in trading volume, Kalshi’s Best Supporting Actress market overwhelmingly favors Saldaña.
From Meryl Streep to Whoopi Goldberg, Oscars for the Supporting Actress Awards have always been a competitive category. As we approach the 97th Academy Awards on March 2, 2025, this prestigious race remains one of the most anticipated categories of Hollywood’s biggest night.
This year’s nominees include supporting actresses in musicals, a biopic, a period drama, and a political thriller. From pop star Ariana Grande to multi-franchise hitmaker Zoe Saldaña, the category is packed with the movie world’s biggest names.
Top prediction platforms like Kalshi have bettors predicting the supporting actress market since Oct. 25, 2025, and the market has more than $375,000 in trading volume. Before betting on your Oscar predictions, here’s what you need to know about each nominee.
Zoe Saldaña
Saldaña is nominated for her role in Emilia Pérez where she plays Rita, a disgruntled lawyer frustrated with the justice system. In the film, a cartel leader asks her character to help fake her death.
Emilia Pérez is a genre-bending film that crosses the boundaries between musical, crime thriller, and even comedy. The film allowed Saldaña to flex her acting chops with complex musical numbers among a star-studded cast.
Saldaña is the frontrunner of the category and has been for most of the awards circuit. On the Kalshi prediction market, she has been at the top for all but three days since the market’s launch. She has a significant lead over the runner-up with a forecasted 87% chance of winning, making her an odds-on favorite in the category.
The current odds are not too surprising given that she’s won almost every major precursor award – the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, and the BAFTA.
Ariana Grande
The nominee second-most likely to win the award is Ariana Grande for her role as Glinda in Wicked. Glinda is the “Good Witch of the South” but she stars in the origin story written by Gregory Maguire in 1995, which was then made into a hit Broadway musical.
The highly-anticipated movie musical adaptation was received with open arms. The film was a blockbuster success garnering over $700 million globally.
Grande and her co-star Cynthia Erivo received rave reviews as the two beloved main leads. Grande went through a total transformation from the pop star performing risqué lyrics to the Good Witch soprano.
Grande is the runner-up according to the Kalshi market but she sits at a distant second with a 12% chance. Grande was also nominated at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs but didn’t win the categories. Her only chance at winning is if she wins the SAG Award and if Emilia Peréz controversies dissuade voters from choosing Saldaña
Isabella Rossellini
According to the prediction markets, Isabella Rossellini is the third-most likely to win the category. Rossellini stars in Conclave as Sister Agnes, which is a mostly silent and observant, but intimidating, character.
Conclave is a political thriller based on the 2016 novel by Robert Harris. The cardinals have to organize a conclave to elect the new pope and they discover many secrets along the way.
Rossellini is third most likely with a small 3% chance of winning in the market. While Grande has won some acting awards in smaller award shows, Rossellini has won even fewer.
While her performance received rave reviews and received nominations in the same categories at the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs, the competition by Saldaña and Grande is likely too fierce for Rossellini to stand a chance.
Felicity Jones
Felicity Jones is at the bottom of the field. Jones stars in The Brutalist, a period drama following a Hungarian-Jewish architect who emigrates to the United States after surviving the Holocaust. Jones plays his wife, Erzsébet Tóth.
While her co-star and the lead of the film, Adrien Brody, has been winning all the Best Actor categories, the same can’t be said about Jones. While she earned nominations at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, the same can’t be said about the Critics Choice Awards or the SAG Awards.
While getting some recognition at smaller award shows, Jones has yet to win an acting award for this film. At her peak, Jones had a forecasted 15% chance of winning the category but now sits below one percent on the market.
Monica Barbaro
Monica Barbaro joins Jones at the bottom of the market for Best Supporting Actress. Barbaro starred in A Complete Unknown, a biopic about the American icon Bob Dylan where she played the legendary folk singer Joan Baez.
Other than the Academy Awards, Barbaro’s only other major acting nomination is at the SAG Awards. While A Complete Unkown has received many nominations at these precursor awards, they have been mostly snubbed in each category.
After barely reaching a 2% peak on Kalshi, her chances have now slipped below 1%. Without major nominations , her path to Academy gold is unlikely.
Who’s most likely to win Supporting Actress at Oscars 2025?
All the signs are pointing to Saldaña winning the award but do the Oscars always agree with the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs?
Year | Oscar Winner | Golden Globe Winner | Critics’ Choice Winner | BAFTA Winner |
2010 | Melissa Leo | Melissa Leo | Melissa Leo | Helena Bonham Carter |
2011 | Octavia Spencer | Octavia Spencer | Octavia Spencer | Octavia Spencer |
2012 | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway | Anne Hathaway |
2013 | Lupita Nyong’o | Jennifer Lawrence | Lupita Nyong’o | Jennifer Lawrence |
2014 | Patricia Arquette | Patricia Arquette | Patricia Arquette | Patricia Arquette |
2015 | Alicia Vikander | Kate Winslet | Alicia Vikander | Kate Winslet |
2016 | Viola Davis | Viola Davis | Viola Davis | Viola Davis |
2017 | Allison Janney | Allison Janney | Allison Janney | Allison Janney |
2018 | Regina King | Regina King | Regina King | Rachel Weisz |
2019 | Laura Dern | Laura Dern | Laura Dern | Laura Dern |
2020 | Yuh-jung Youn | Jodie Foster | Maria Bakalova | Youn Yuh-jung |
2021 | Ariana DeBose | Ariana DeBose | Ariana DeBose | Ariana DeBose |
2022 | Jamie Lee Curtis | Angela Bassett | Angela Bassett | Kerry Condon |
2023 | Da’Vine Joy Randolph | Da’Vine Joy Randolph | Da’Vine Joy Randolph | Da’Vine Joy Randolph |
2024 | TBD | Zoe Saldaña | Zoe Saldaña | Zoe Saldaña |
If you look at the Supporting Actress winners since 2010, when the same actor won the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, the same person would also win the Oscar. The only exceptions occur when the awards are split among different contenders.
And even when there is discourse in the other three, one of their choices is chosen for the Oscar. For example, in 2013 Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe and BAFTA but Lupita Nyong’o won the Critics’ Choice Award. That year Nyong’o also won the Oscar, meaning it wasn’t a random third choice.
The only time since 2010 that the Academy voters chose someone completely different was in 2022. The other three chose either Angela Bassett or Kerry Condon and the Oscar voters went for Jamie Lee Curtis instead.
Zoe Saldaña’s near-sweep of the major precursor awards makes her the clear frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. History suggests that when an actress wins the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA, the Academy tends to follow.
While some uncertainty remains due to controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez’s lead actress, Saldaña’s strong campaign and Netflix’s backing put her in prime position for the win.
