What to know:
- Mikey Madison’s unexpected win for lead actress at the BAFTAS has thrown the category into chaos with Demi Moore previously believed to be the frontrunner.
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl pulled off a surprise victory despite not being a top contender.
- Conclave’s surprise Best Film win gave it a boost in the Oscar betting markets, rising to 10%. However, Anora remains the favorite.
The 78th British Academy Film Awards (BAFTAs) were held on Feb. 16, 2025, as actor David Tennant returned to host the BAFTAs for a second time.
Conclave was the most nominated with 12 nods, followed by Emilia Pérez with eleven. Then there was The Brutalist with nine nominations. At the end of the night, The Brutalist and Conclave came out on top with the most awards – four for both.
If you are betting on the Oscars, the BAFTA winners matter significantly. The BAFTAs are one of a small collective of award shows seen as precursors for the Oscars.
In 2024, almost every BAFTA winner went on to win the Oscar. But the previous year they only matched in one category.
The only precursor award show left is the SAG Awards, but until then, these winners are the latest indicators of the most likely to win at the Oscars and can help bettors on top prediction platforms like Kalshi forecast the winners more accurately.
Here are three takeaways Oscar bettors should take notice of.
‘Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl’ wins Best Animated Feature
In the Best Animated Feature Oscar category, the clear frontrunner is The Wild Robot. However, this win was a surprise given that Wallace & Gromit is not seen as even the runner-up in the list of movies most likely to win the category.
Flow is the second most likely to win after The Wild Robot. Wild Robot won the category at the Critics’ Choice Awards, the Producers Guild of America Awards, and the Annie Awards. Flow has won the category at the Golden Globes and Best Independent Animated Feature at the Annie Awards.
On the other hand, Wallace & Gromit was nominated plenty of times – seven Annie Awards and a Golden Globe – but hadn’t won any of the major awards. Since 2010, the winner for this category typically lines up with the Oscars, however, the same can be said about the Golden Globes which also had a different winner.
This would imply that without a doubt, whoever wins this category, will not line up with the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, or maybe even either of them.
After its BAFTA win, Wallace & Gromit briefly rose to a 7% chance of winning before falling back to 3% on Kalshi.
Mikey Madison wins Leading Actress
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the night, Mikey Madison took the lead actress win at the BAFTAs. The Substance’s Demi Moore has been considered the lead contender in the Oscar category for weeks and this win was an upset.
Moore won the Critics’ Choice Award for Best Actress and I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres won the category at the Golden Globe’s. After the Golden Globes, Torres’ chances rose temporarily on Kalshi but has since fallen to 8%.
Moore’s chances were at 75% before the BAFTAs but have since fallen to 57%. And Madison’s chances shot up from 20% to 41%.
Now the race is very tight and all eyes will be on the SAG Awards. If the SAG award goes to Moore or Madison, the race may be clearer. If Moore wins, she will likely also take the Oscars. Or the SAG Awards could go with someone completely different making the predicted Ocars winner incredibly difficult to forecast.
‘Conclave’ wins Best Film
The second surprise of the night was Conclave’s win in the Best Film category. The current clear frontrunner for the Academy Award’s Best Picture is Anora. The film has already won the top prize at the DGA, PGA, WGA, and Critics Choice.
At the Golden Globes, The Brutalist won Best Drama and Emilia Pérez won Best Comedy/Musical. Other than the Golden Globes, Anora practically has a clean sweep.
As a result, Conclave’s win is a big surprise for viewers and bettors. Again, we will have to see who wins at the SAG Awards.
However, only one film that received a win at the DGA, PGA, WGA, and Critics Choice has not won the Best Picture Oscar as well. The chances for Anora are strongly in its favor.
Thanks to the BAFTAs win, Conclave rose to 10% on the Kalshi market but Anora is still far in the lead with 71%.
With just the SAG Awards left, the BAFTAs have shaken up the 2025 Oscar race, introducing unexpected contenders and tightening key categories. Surprises like Conclave’s win and Mikey Madison’s rise mean nothing is set in stone.
