Kalshi’s markets now feature AI-driven news insights thanks to a deal with xAI.
The AI company founded by Elon Musk is officially in partnership with Kalshi after an apparent premature announcement of a similar deal was rescinded back in May.
Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets.
Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team.@xAI 🤝 @Kalshi pic.twitter.com/MCh5eQd906
— xAI (@xai) July 24, 2025
Kalshi and xAI deal integrations
Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market, now includes news updates integrated at key points in prediction markets. Users can find news items that prompted market movements or news that made headlines but didn’t move markets much. Grok curates these stories and matches them to critical timestamps in the markets, as demonstrated in the 2028 Democratic nominee market below.
This movement toward combining news and prediction market forecasting has been a major goal of the prediction market industry. Mainstream news channels were already citing prediction market prices (and event outcome probabilities) during and after the 2024 presidential election. Now, the largest regulated prediction market platform can integrate news stories from a variety of sources with the real-time probabilities and public sentiment reflected in its markets.
The move comes at a time when Kalshi’s largest competitor not only has its own deal with xAI, but is also working its way back into the regulated American market.
Polymarket U.S. return and new regulatory questions
In June 2025, Polymarket announced a deal with xAI in June 2025 to use the crypto prediction market to inform Grok’s posts. Grok will summarize key events in Polymarket’s markets and show news milestones in the market graphs. Through that deal, Polymarket also recently launched an interactive Grok-powered account on X (@AskPolymarket) which answers users’ questions using insights from the platform’s markets and corresponding odds.
The prediction market industry believes in the power of markets to show how likely an event is to happen without the biases of pundits or fallible commentators. Enthusiasm about the decentralized nature of markets overlaps with the enthusiasm for the decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies. The belief that currency regulation and some types of reporting are best done by harnessing group opinions permeates prediction market innovations.
While Polymarket has a similar partnership with xAI, Kalshi remains a CFTC-regulated platform. Polymarket has been cleared to return to the U.S. market and just last week announced it acquired its own DCM and clearinghouse. While the acquisition paves the way for a regulated return to the United States, it’s unclear what Polymarket may have to change about its operations to comply with CFTC regulations.
In the wake of all of the big prediction exchange news – @RailbirdHQ getting regulated and potentially acquired by @DKSportsbook, @Polymarket buying their regulation, I share some thoughts on what it takes to run a regulated exchange and the challenges the new entrants face. pic.twitter.com/1ntvQUpuX7
— eightyhi (@eightyhi) July 22, 2025
Polymarket is the larger of the two prediction market platforms, but its success in the U.S. market could hinge on how well it can work with the CFTC. Kalshi has a seven-year head start working with its federal regulator, which could prove to be the platform’s decisive competitive advantage going into the next sports season and the 2026 midterms.
Crypto regulation and prediction markets
Many new prediction market platforms are launched as crypto companies. The CLARITY Act, which passed the House in July 2025, will create a regulatory framework for CFTC-regulated blockchain companies. These include details like defining a “mature” blockchain and compliance with the CFTC’s core principles.
Polymarket will be the most high-profile company that will have to comply with the new laws and regulations. However, other crypto platforms will likely seek to offer similar products as Polymarket. Kalshi could also expand its crypto offerings on its site following the CLARITY Act’s passage.
Stablecoin regulation from the GENIUS Act is only the beginning of crypto regulation in the United States, and new pro-cryptocurrency legislation will undoubtedly make itself felt across the prediction market industry.
