Election Night Winners: Trump and the Prediction Markets That Called It
In the early hours of Nov. 6, Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election, vindicating prediction markets that favored Trump...
Three Phases of Election Trading: Expect More Bets on Election Day and Beyond
Prediction markets have seen three phases of bettors: early traders, live traders, and the second winds. These traders bet at...
Why Harris vs. Trump Odds Narrowed Over the Weekend
On Oct. 29, Kalshi showed Trump with a 64.6% chance of winning and Harris at 35.4%. Over the weekend, the...
Five Election Betting Trends That Have Predicted the Presidential Winner
Everyone wants to know who will win the 2024 presidential race so they can sleep soundly again. There are a...
What’s the Difference Between Polls, Betting Odds, and Prediction Market Prices?
As prediction markets gained new prominence during the 2024 presidential race, prediction market prices have been conflated with polls and...
Kalshi Presidential Market Hits $100 Million. Can It Reach $1 Billion?
On Oct. 29, Kalshi’s presidential election winner market reached $100 million in trading volume. It’s a large milestone that shows...
Why Donald Trump’s Madison Square Garden Rally Won’t Hurt His Election Odds
On Oct. 27, Donald Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden. It included racist remarks from the opening comedian...
Pennsylvania Election Predictions: Value on Kamala Harris and David McCormick, Plus More Betting Notes
Pennsylvania is one of the most important states in the 2024 presidential election. It has 19 electoral college votes, the...
A Free-to-Play Prediction Platform Shows Why Harris Is a Good Buy Right Now
Prediction markets may show Donald Trump with an easy lead over Kamala Harris, but the size of his lead must...
Voluntary Learning and Other Strengths: Prediction Markets’ Power and Limitations
One of the nice things about prediction markets is that each one comes with its own settlement terms. Properly written,...
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