Who will win the 2024
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Pennsylvania Election Predictions: Value on Kamala Harris and David McCormick, Plus More Betting Notes

Political betting analyst Chris Gerlacher breaks down three Pennsylvania markets, with insights, betting tips, and picks

Picture of Pennsylvania and American flags

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Pennsylvania is one of the most important states in the 2024 presidential election. It has 19 electoral college votes, the most out of any swing state. Whichever candidate wins Pennsylvania dramatically improves their odds of winning the White House. Unsurprisingly, the margin of victory in Pennsylvania is garnering attention on prediction markets, too. 

 

The presidency isn’t the only race where Pennsylvania is crucial. One of Pennsylvania’s senators is up for re-election, which will be pivotal in determining which party controls the Senate. It’ll also influence how weak or powerful the next president could be in pursuing their legislative agenda. 

 

Here’s what you need to know if you’re making Pennsylvania predictions on prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket

Pennsylvania presidential market

Kalshi’s presidential market has moved in favor of Donald Trump taking Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral college votes. Trump has about a 54% chance of winning Pennsylvania at this time of this writing.

Screenshot of Kalshi presidential winner market

Harris is likely underpriced here. Kalshi’s traders lean toward predicting a Trump presidential victory, and the swing state markets have organically moved in the same direction. 

 

Kalshi’s prices are consistent with a close race. If Harris rebounds to a 50/50 price near Election Day, Harris’ presidential victory is a buying opportunity. 

 

PREDICTION: Harris (47¢/+113)

Pennsylvania margin of victory

Polymarket offers a market on the margin of victory in Pennsylvania’s popular vote for the presidential race. Two of the most popular outcomes are Trump winning by over 4.5% of the vote, followed by Harris winning by more than 4.5%. 

In 2020, more than 6.8 million people voted in Pennsylvania. Biden won the state by almost 82,000 votes, which came out to a 1.2% margin of victory.

 

Polymarket traders are not anticipating a close race. At face value, Trump winning Pennsylvania by at least 2.5% is priced at 31 cents, and Harris winning by the same margin is priced at 21 cents.

 

A blowout in either direction seems unlikely. Biden won both the popular vote and the Electoral College by a landslide in 2020. Trump suffered from his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the social unrest following the peak of Black Lives Matter protests.

 

According to Gallup, Trump’s approval rating was 46% as the 2020 election approached.

 

Trump isn’t facing the same historic disapproval as 2020. The tight race scenarios seem underpriced and worth adding to traders’ portfolios.

 

PREDICTION: Harris by 0.5-1% (6¢/+1576)

Pennsylvania Senate market

Democratic incumbent Robert Casey is facing a tough race to keep his Pennsylvania Senate seat. His opponent, Republican David McCormick, has gained in the polls and even pulled ahead in some.

 

The race is now so close that Cook Political Report changed its assessment of the Pennsylvania Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss-up.” 

Screenshot of Kalshi PA senate race market

Kalshi’s Pennsylvania Senate market has reflected this tightening race. Casey’s price has decreased throughout October, and the steepest drop occurred on Oct. 21, the day that multiple news outlets reported on how close the race was. 

 

McCormick is the attractive buy in this market. If the race remains tight, McCormick’s price will increase, and traders will be able to flip McCormick contracts before the election is called. 

 

PREDICTION: McCormick (34¢/+194)

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