After federal deployments to Washington, D.C. (and earlier actions in Los Angeles), attention has turned to which cities might be next on President Trump’s radar.
In fact, prediction markets like Kalshi are letting users bet on that very question, providing real-time forecasts on what U.S. cities will have the National Guard deployed into their city this year.
Here are 15 cities that could be next.
Chicago
- Likelihood: High (65%).
Trump has repeatedly named Chicago and officials say contingency planning exists. Local leaders vow legal challenges, but signaling remains strongest here.
New York City
- Likelihood: Medium (55%).
Trump’s rhetoric and ongoing legal/political tensions make NYC a perennial target if mass protests or a high‑visibility incident occurs.
Baltimore
- Likelihood: Medium (42%).
A public back‑and‑forth with Maryland leadership has elevated Baltimore into the conversation despite improved homicide trends.
Los Angeles
- Likelihood: Medium (~30%) for a renewed/expanded federal presence.
LA has served as a template for federal involvement around large‑scale demonstrations and immigration enforcement flashpoints.
Portland
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~25%)
Historic 2020 federal deployments and protest dynamics keep Portland on watch, though current protest activity is lower.
Seattle
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~25%).
The CHAZ/CHOP legacy means any renewed unrest could draw a federal response, but there’s limited present‑tense signaling.
Philadelphia
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~20%).
As a political battleground city, a large demonstration or election‑related tension could bring it into focus.
Atlanta
- Likelihood: Medium (~30%).
Policing debates and statewide politics keep Atlanta in the discussion if protests and politics intersect.
Washington, D.C.
- Status: Already deployed (active).
The capital remains the epicenter, with armed Guard patrols approved and ongoing federal operations; further escalations are possible during major protests.
San Francisco
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (16%).
Frequent federal–local clashes over immigration and public‑order policy keep SF on long‑list status.
Oakland
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~20%).
Past federal‑local tension and port‑adjacent protest risk place Oakland as a potential Bay Area flashpoint if conditions escalate.
Phoenix
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~20%).
State‑level alignment and migration politics could make Phoenix a staging or surge target tied to border enforcement cycles.
El Paso
- Likelihood: Medium (~25%).
Border surges, shelter capacity strain, or a high‑profile incident would raise deployment odds quickly.
San Diego
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~20%).
Operational logic at the Southwest border puts San Diego on the watchlist if migration or port‑of‑entry protests spike.
Minneapolis
- Likelihood: Low‑Medium (~20%).
The city’s 2020 protest legacy makes it sensitive to any renewed policing flashpoint, though current signals are muted.
Our Prediction
- Chicago within the next 30 days (~55–60%), with Baltimore and New York City the most likely backups if courts or state officials slow a Chicago move.
- Signals to monitor: federal orders, Guard movement reports, courthouse filings, and synchronized federal‑local press briefings. Expect rapid market reactions to any paperwork or sightings preceding an official announcement.
