As of Sunday morning, Prediction markets and sportsbooks are singing a similar tune heading into Week 2 when it comes to the 2025 NFL MVP race: elite dual-threats up top, and a crowded mid-pack where a big game can change everything.
Below is the top 10 NFL MVP candidates by win probability, according to prediction markets plus what each star needs to tighten their grip or crash the party.
Josh Allen, Bills
Allen’s ceiling is the cheat code: arm talent for explosion games and rushing leverage at the goal line. The only thing that’s ever capped his MVP equity is turnover volatility. Clean pockets and disciplined hero ball turn 23% into an a potential odds-on favorite later in the season. If Buffalo continues to stack wins while he stuffs both columns, he’s the early pace car.
- NFL MVP Chances: 23%
Lamar Jackson, Ravens
Lamar’s tape still terrifies coordinators: QB run gravity, quick triggers to the middle, and just enough deep shots to punish bad leverage. MVP voters also love a quarterback who drives efficient, mistake-free wins; Jackson’s path is piling those up while sprinkling signature moments in national windows. If Baltimore controls game scripts, he’s within striking distance of No. 1.
- NFL MVP Chances: 17%
Joe Burrow, Bengals
Burrow’s equity always blooms when the operation looks effortless—timing routes, hot reads, and red-zone precision with the game tethered to him. If Cincinnati’s offense hits rhythm early this season (think sustained drives plus clean third downs), Burrow’s percentage is built to climb steadily week over week. A couple of fourth-quarter daggers and he’s in the top tier again.
- NFL MVP Chances: 11%
Justin Herbert, Chargers
Herbert’s candidacy lives in the space between wild throws and closing time; he’s demonstrated the former but stacking late-game conversions and statement wins delivers the latter. With weapons to push the ball at all depths, a hot month would vault him into single-game-swing territory on the markets. Keep an eye on red-zone TD rate; if it spikes, so will his price.
- NFL MVP Chances: 10%
Jordan Love, Packers
If consistency follows last season’s breakout flashes, Love becomes the model “leap” candidate. The recipe: keep the TD/INT ratio pristine, punish single-high looks, and let Green Bay’s defense protect leads so the counting stats stay glossy. A 3–0 or 4-0 start with pop plays will move this number quickly.
- NFL MVP Chances: 10%
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mahomes carries a permanent floor in MVP markets: scheme-proof, pressure-proof, and historically efficient in high-leverage moments. The problem is, with aging and ailing receivers, this offense is likely to struggle no matter how talented Mahomes is.
- NFL MVP Chances: 9%
Jalen Hurts, Eagles
Hurts owns a unique MVP path: passing efficiency plus a built-in rushing TD engine that bloats the box score. Voters will forgive modest YPA if the Eagles bully teams situationally (third downs, red zone) with Hurts as the central problem.
- NFL MVP Chances: 5%
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
The narrative is real: the former No. 1 pick resurrecting his career on a playoff contender is catnip for voters—if the underlying efficiency holds. To turn 3% into something meaningful, Baker needs clean sheets, explosives off play-action, and a signature drive or two with everyone watching. September is the time to bank that goodwill.
- NFL MVP Chances: 3%
Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Dak’s track is straightforward: upset the Eagles in the NFC East (which will be hard since they lost to them lat week), feed his stars, and erase doubts in late/close situations. He’s likely to put up MVP numbers in this offense, the question is if the Cowboys can get the wins.
- NFL MVP Chances: 3%
Saquon Barkley, Eagles
The non-QB route is brutally narrow, but Barkley has the ingredients: explosive plays, receiving juice, and the chance to be the face of a top-seed contender. For a true charge, he’d need a historic pace (touchdowns plus yards from scrimmage) and weekly “how do you tackle that?” clips. It’s a long shot, but if any running back can do it in this era, it will be Barkley.
- NFL MVP Chances: 2%
