Endorsements are leverage, not vibes. Markets are gaming one real lane — Adams → Cuomo — while a Trump wildcard hums in the background.
Here’s the live tape, the rule text that matters, and what would actually move the line.
Live odds snapshot
Adams → Cuomo ~41%. Trump endorses someone ~20%. Trump → Adams low single digits. Cuomo → Adams basically priced out.
What counts (rules, not rumors)
Only a clear, public “I endorse/I’m voting for X” before 11:59 p.m. ET, Nov 4. Anything softer is noise.
Why the board looks like this
Consolidation chatter plus pressure to thin the field has bettors pricing a late anti-Mamdani alignment.
Adams to Cuomo lane
Most plausible switch: saves face, preserves influence, and gives moderates a home if his path closes.
Trump wildcard
Any explicit mayoral endorsement detonates the board, even if it’s not Cuomo. Direction unknown, impact certain.
What pushes Adams, Cuomo up
On-record softening, credible reporting of a deal, union/business blocs leaning on consolidation, fresh polling that closes Adams’ lane.
What tanks it
Adams endorses someone else, or firmly says “no endorsement.” Instant bleed.
Signals to watch
Debate moments, big-tent union councils, outer-borough power brokers moving in sync, weekend trial balloons.
Timeline
Expect late breaks. Weekend dumps and Monday statements are the house style in this city.
Prediction
Base case: no big endorsements until consolidation is the only door left. If it comes, Adams to Cuomo is the first domino; otherwise these markets drift toward No into November.
