Trump has already flexed his authority by deploying the Guard in D.C. and California — though courts struck down the LA action as illegal.
Now he’s hinting Chicago, New York, Baltimore, and Oakland could be next. But the mix of local opposition, falling crime rates, and legal hurdles like the Posse Comitatus Act makes the next move murky.
Here’s a look at where — and how — Trump might try to send troops next.
Chicago: high-profile target (71%)
Pentagon planning is underway, Trump calls it a “mess,” but crime is actually down 23% year-over-year. Local leaders vow to resist.
Legal land mines in LA
A federal judge blocked the LA deployment as a violation of the Posse Comitatus Act, setting a precedent that could unravel future moves.
New York on the radar (28%)
Trump floated deploying to NYC despite pushback from city and state officials. Crime trends don’t back up his claims of “chaos.”
Baltimore in the crosshairs (25%)
Mentioned by Trump as a hot spot, but state leaders and civil-rights groups are ready to fight any federal incursion.
Oakland as a talking point
Oakland’s leadership has already condemned the idea, warning a Guard presence could inflame tensions rather than ease them.
Washington, D. C. — already active
Federal authority makes D.C. the easiest target, and Trump has already exercised control there without state interference.
The Insurrection Act card
Trump could invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act to override governors — but the legal fight would be immediate and intense.
Crime stats vs. rhetoric
Chicago, New York, and Baltimore have all seen falling crime, undermining Trump’s justification for military-style crackdowns.
Quick Reaction Force concept
Reports suggest the White House is building a standing Guard unit for rapid domestic deployment, sidestepping city-specific fights.
Prediction
Chicago is most likely, but legal rulings and state defiance may stall it. Other cities remain more threat than reality. Watch for a national “Quick Reaction Force” as Trump’s potential workaround.
