Trump’s tariff war is back on, and this time it’s nastier, faster, and more chaotic.
The clock’s ticking toward Aug. 1, and the White House is pushing through a fresh round of trade hits — some hitting 50%, some going higher, and a whole lot of countries in the crosshairs.
The markets were (or seem to be) right in assessing that Trump would impose large tariffs this year — Kalshi has it at 96%.
Here’s what’s happening now, but, bear in mind, all of this can change in a snap.
Deadline’s Real This Time (… Unless He Changes His Mind)
No more delays. Trump confirmed the U.S. will launch reciprocal tariffs on August 1. That means copper, steel, semiconductors, and drugs are about to get hammered — and so are U.S. companies that rely on them.
How Bad Are the Numbers?
- Copper: 50% tariff.
- Steel & aluminum: doubled to 50% (UK still at 25%).
- Pharma imports: on deck for a 200% tariff.
- Semiconductors: 25%+ starting August.
These aren’t symbolic. These are sledgehammers.
Who’s On the Hit List
14 countries are getting smacked:
- 25% tariffs: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, the UK
- 30%: South Africa, Bosnia
- 35%: Bangladesh
- 40%: Laos, Myanmar
- Worst hit? Lesotho — 50%
Each rate tied to “reciprocity,” but let’s be real — it’s punishment dressed as policy.
Averages Don’t Lie
The U.S. now has the highest average tariff rate since 1934: 17.6%. This isn’t normal trade politics. This is a self-inflicted economic drag in real time.
Flashback to April
This all started in April with a 10% universal tariff and a threat of targeted hikes. Trump called it Liberation Day. China’s rate hit 125% before the pause. That pause is over.
What the Markets Are Saying
- S&P dropped 0.8%, Nasdaq and Dow fell ~0.9% after the announcement.
- Yale economists warn the tariffs could:
- Raise household costs $2,300/year
- Kill 538,000 jobs
- Cut GDP by 0.7 points
- Wipe out $110 billion in growth
So yeah, the “winning” feels a little thin.
Who’s Pushing Back
Japan and South Korea are already negotiating for exemptions.
Cambodia got a reduction from 49% to 36%.
Bangladesh’s garment sector is freaking out.
China has until Aug. 12 to cut a deal — or face a full return to 100%+ tariffs.
The Legal Mess
Some of these tariffs are based on emergency powers (IEEPA, Section 232), and courts are circling. Lawsuits could delay or unravel them — but that won’t stop the disruption in the meantime.
Trump’s Logic (Such as It Is)
He says this is about “fairness” — you hit us, we hit back harder. He’s not negotiating. He’s sending letters. The strategy is basically “threaten everyone and see who blinks.” It’s chaos as leverage.
What Happens Next
- Aug. 1: Tariffs activate.
- Countries scramble to negotiate or retaliate.
- More waves coming: semiconductors, autos, pharma
- U.S. businesses brace for supply chain hits, inflation, and uncertainty.
Bottom line? This isn’t about trade — it’s about control. And we’re all about to feel the cost of it.
