The race for the 2028 Democratic nomination may feel distant, but the contours are already taking shape on prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
From the California governor’s mansion to the grassroots firebrand in Congress, early positioning is underway, even if it’s just the first turn. Over the next couple of minutes, we’ll break down who’s leading the pack, according to bettors, and what makes each informal candidate formidable (and vulnerable), alongside any relevant news you should know related to each face.
After all, it’s never too early to start looking ahead.
Let’s get started.
Gavin Newsom, California Governor
California’s charismatic governor since 2019, Newsom has built a national profile with big-state executive chops and a fundraising juggernaut.
Strengths: Oversees the nation’s largest economy; deep donor network; media-savvy (hosts a popular podcast featuring cross-partisan guests).
Weaknesses: Progressive base wary of his recent centrist pivots—like proposals to cut health benefits for undocumented immigrants—and a looming $12 billion budget shortfall that’s drawn pushback from allies. He’ll also certain be attacked for his handling of the Covid pandemic in the state, which included some unabashed hyprocrisy.
Recent news: This week he rolled out a budget featuring steep service cuts and called for more fiscal restraint—moves seen as part of a broader rebranding toward the center.
- Kalshi says: 11%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, New York Congresswoman
Since 2019, AOC has reshaped the Democratic conversation with her progressive fire and national “Fighting Oligarchy” tour alongside the like of Bernie Sanders. She has recently seen a surge in her presidential odds, with analysts like Nate Silver going as far as saying she might be the favorite to win what will be a highly competitive Democratic primary.
Strengths: Electrifying grassroots fundraisin; strong favorability among younger and diverse voters; proven organizing prowess on hot-button issues like climate and inequality, which will play well with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, particularly during the primary process.
Weaknesses: Seen by some as too far left for general-election swing voters; critics note occasional detachment from her Bronx-Queens district and high-profile tour stops.
Recent news: A campaign-style video and steady rise in polls have fueled speculation, though she insists her focus remains on defending Medicaid against the Trump administration and Republicans who control the Senate and the House
- Kalshi says: 10%
Pete Buttigieg, Former Mayor and Transportation Secretary
The 2020 Iowa caucus star and former Transportation Secretary is quietly laying groundwork for 2028. He’s among one of the most articulate orators in politics since Barack Obama. Speaking of strengths…
Strengths: Centrist appeal; strong communicator; proven ability to engage voters in unlikely venues (including conservative podcasts).
Weaknesses: Question marks over appeal to Black and rural voters; family considerations—he’s the father of twins—could temper his campaign pace.
Recent news: In Iowa town halls, he conceded that Biden’s second-term bid “maybe” hurt Democrats and has since signaled that he is seriously “assessing” a 2028 run.
- Kalshi says: 7%
Stephen A. Smith, ESPN Commentator
Charismatic ESPN commentator turned political dark-horse, Smith brings unrivaled media savvy and name recognition—and a healthy dose of controversy—to the 2028 field.
Strengths: Instant national profile from two decades on “First Take” and other flagship programs, somehwat similar to Donald Trump’s name appeal; has become outspoken in politics, defying conventional democratic wisdom which could appeal to the center or more populist voting blocs that are dissatisfied with the two-party system (yes, even if Smith runs as Democrat).
Weaknesses: No elected-office experience or traditional policy background (in some sense, this actually turned into a strength for Trump); unclear positions on core Democratic priorities beyond broad calls for “equality” and “opportunity”
Recent news: Most recently, President Donald Trump himself encouraged Stephen A. to run, and Smith has said that he has “no choice” but to consider a presidential bid.
- Kalshi says: 7% (yes, really)
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania Governor.
Pennsylvania’s two-term attorney general turned governor, Shapiro flipped a key swing state in 2022 and has since cemented his reputation as a pragmatic dealmaker. He was a top contender to be Kamala Harris’ vice president nominee but, reportedly, turned down the opportunity which may pay off in the long run.
Strengths: Proven track record winning multiple statewide election in a pivotal battleground state for Democrats; deliver major bipartisan initiatives to Pennsylvanians; a strong centrist appeal given his law-and-order credentials as an attorney general; strong orator whom some have compared to the the likes of President Obama.
Weaknesses: Limited national profile outside of PA; criticism from progressives over moderate stances and strong support of Israel
Recent news: Touted his “win record” on HBO’s Bill Maher as evidence he’s “the guy” for 2028, marking one of his first overt nods to a future bid
- Kalshi says: 6%
Democratic Presidential Longshots
- Kamala Harris – 5%
- Wes Moore -5%
- Gretchen Witmer – 4%
- Andy Beshear – 4%
- J.B Pritzker – 4%
- Tim Walz – 3%
- Michelle Obama – 3%
- Corey Booker – 3%
- Mark Cuba – 2%
- Mark Kelly – 2%
- Roy Cooper – 1%
- John Fetterman – 1%
