Texas Republicans aren’t just picking a nominee; they’re picking a future. The showdown between Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton is the purest test yet of what it means to be a Republican in 2025 — institutional power versus populist defiance.
The Battlefield
Cornyn’s the steady hand — old-guard conservative, decades in Washington, backed by donors who still believe in rules.
Paxton’s the fighter — indicted, unbothered, adored by Trump’s base for refusing to quit. The contrast is the point.
The Numbers
Latest Houston Chronicle / UT Tracker polling puts Cornyn narrowly ahead: Cornyn 46%, Paxton 43%, Undecided 11%.
Internal GOP memos show Cornyn clawing back from a 10-point deficit this summer.
Betting and prediction markets now price Cornyn around 55% odds, Paxton at 43%, and a negligible field remainder.
The Trump Variable
Paxton wears Trump’s loyalty like armor. Cornyn plays it quieter, signaling respect without submission. Trump hasn’t endorsed — yet. A single Truth Social post could flip the math overnight. Traders know it; volume spikes every time he mentions Texas.
Money & Momentum
Cornyn’s machine still dominates fundraising: $15 million on hand with national PAC backing.
Paxton’s catching up — $9 million mostly from grassroots and MAGA-aligned donors.
If conservative super PACs smell weakness, they’ll carpet-bomb the airwaves by late October.
What’s at Stake
This isn’t about one Senate seat. It’s about whether the GOP runs on competence or combat.
A Cornyn win signals the party still values governance.
A Paxton victory means Texas — and likely Washington — leans deeper into grievance politics.
Market Mood
Prediction boards show violent swings on every headline: impeachment whispers, ethics probes, border rhetoric. Liquidity’s high, trust is low, and traders are betting on emotion more than numbers.
Prediction
Right now, Cornyn leads, but not comfortably.
Paxton’s base is louder, Cornyn’s coalition is broader, and both are one Trump post away from chaos.
The smart money says Cornyn holds — barely — but in Texas politics, “barely” is just another word for overtime.
