Week 1 delivered ejections, weather delays, and a Sunday night instant classic. After Philadelphia’s 24–20 grinder, Kansas City’s 27–21 stumble overseas, and Buffalo’s late avalanche against Baltimore, markets re-priced the title race. Here’s where the top 10 stand right now, according to prediction markets.
1) Buffalo Bills — 15%
Week 1: Down 15 in the final four minutes, Buffalo ripped off 16 unanswered to beat Baltimore 41–40 on a walk-off 32-yard field goal. Josh Allen stacked 394 yards and four total TDs, while Keon Coleman broke out (8/112/1). That kind of late-game gear is why the market nudged the Bills to the top.
2) Baltimore Ravens — 14%
Week 1: A heartbreaker in Orchard Park—Baltimore led late behind a monstrous Derrick Henry (169 yards, 2 TD) and three Lamar Jackson TDs, then coughed it up in the final minutes. The offense popped; the finish didn’t. Odds dip, not dive.
3) Green Bay Packers — 12%
Week 1: Handled Detroit 27–13. Jordan Love tossed two TDs and new arrival Micah Parsons logged his first Packers sack as the defense squeezed the Lions. It looked businesslike—and that’s bullish.
4) Philadelphia Eagles — 12%
Week 1: 24–20 over Dallas in a banner-night grinder that featured an early Jalen Carter ejection and a 65-minute lightning delay. Jalen Hurts ran for two scores and the defense pitched a second-half shutout. Ugly, but bankable.
5) Kansas City Chiefs — 10%
Week 1: Clipped 27–21 by the Chargers in São Paulo. Mahomes was fine; the rhythm and receiver room (injuries/suspensions) weren’t. The floor remains elite, but markets want cleaner timing before paying a premium.
6) Detroit Lions — 7%
Week 1: Flat in a 27–13 loss at Green Bay—pass rush quiet, reshuffled OL wobbly. It’s a ding, not a derailment, but the trenches need to stabilize to push this price back toward double digits.
7) San Francisco 49ers — 6%
Week 1: Gritty 17–13 win in Seattle. Brock Purdy threw a late go-ahead TD to Jake Tonges (with two earlier picks), and Nick Bosa’s strip-sack sealed it. Not pretty, but road division wins travel well in models.
8) Los Angeles Rams — 5%
Week 1: Beat Houston 14–9 on defense and milestones—Matthew Stafford crossed 60,000 career passing yards and Puka Nacua went 10 for 130. A late forced fumble iced it. If the D stays stingy, there’s upside.
9) Washington Commanders — 5%
Week 1: Smothered the Giants 21–6. Deebo Samuel scored in his Washington debut, Jayden Daniels threw for 233 and a TD, and the defense kept New York out of the end zone. Tone-setting stuff.
10) Cincinnati Bengals — 4%
Week 1: Escaped Cleveland 17–16 behind DJ Turner II’s late ricochet INT and a Browns kicking meltdown. Not art, but 1–0 after recent slow starts steadies the number.
