The S&P 500 is trading just shy of its July 31 intraday record of 6,427, with tech stocks and AI hype keeping the rally alive. Prediction markets like Kalshi think it could crack 6,800 by the end of the year (14%).
A break higher is on the table this week — but so is a quick reversal if inflation data spooks the market.
Bulls are hungry, bears are waiting for their moment, and the rest of us are watching the tape like a hawk.
Where We Stand
The index closed at 6,389, less than 1% from its record. Momentum is solid, with weekly gains around 2%, but sellers are lurking near that resistance level.
The Old Mark
The all-time intraday high of 6,427.02 is the line to beat. Clear it, and we could see a push toward 6,450 — if buyers stick around.
What’s Fueling the Push
Strong earnings, optimism about rate cuts, and AI-fueled tech leadership are doing the heavy lifting.
The Bullish Roadmap
Citi just hiked its year-end target to 6,600, with a blue-sky scenario of 7,200. Goldman still sees 6,600 in six months, while Barron’s floats 6,900 by December.
The Bearish Warnings
Some technical analysts see a 5% pullback brewing — down toward 6,100 — before any sustained run higher. Semiconductor weakness is a yellow flag.
The Bubble Buzz
Valuations are stretching into dot-com territory. The rally’s feeling more like FOMO than fundamentals in some corners.
Macro Wildcards
Tariff uncertainty, weaker economic data, and this week’s CPI inflation report could swing sentiment hard in either direction.
Short-Term Odds
A record high this week? Plausible. Holding that high? Much tougher. A false breakout and fast fade is a real possibility.
What to Watch
CPI release, Fed minutes, and sector breadth. If AI and chips surge, they can drag the whole index over the line.
The Playbook
Bulls: ride the break but set tight stops. Bears: watch for a rejection near the high. Everyone: expect volatility spikes around key data drops.
Takeaway
We’re in striking distance of history, but the market’s running hot. Breakout or breakdown — this week’s action will set the tone for the rest of the summer.
