Now well into its fourth year, the war in Ukraine has produced plenty of talk about talks—but no shared definition of “peace.”
Moscow wants recognition of its annexations and a permanently non-aligned Ukraine; Kyiv demands restoration of its 1991 borders, NATO-level guarantees, and legal accountability.
Prediction markets mirror the stalemate: as of August 24, 2025, Kalshi implies about a 31% chance that Putin and Zelenskyy meet before January, while Polymarket puts only ~25% on a ceasefire this year.
Here are biggest gaps keeping any ceasefire from becoming a real settlement.
Borders & sovereignty
Moscow seeks acceptance of Russia’s claimed annexations and altered borders, while Kyiv insists on fully restoring its internationally recognized 1991 borders with no territorial concessions—an irreducible clash that shapes every other issue.
NATO & security status
The Kremlin wants legally binding neutrality for Ukraine and a pledge never to join NATO; Kyiv wants NATO membership or iron-clad, NATO-like guarantees that deter future invasion.
Ceasefire terms
Russia has floated a ceasefire that would largely freeze the front lines where they are; Ukraine rejects a “frozen conflict,” arguing any truce must be tied to withdrawal rather than legitimizing gains by force.
Justice & accountability
Kyiv backs International Criminal Court cases and a special tribunal for the crime of aggression; Moscow rejects the ICC’s jurisdiction and any process targeting Russian officials. For Ukraine, accountability is non-negotiable.
Sanctions & frozen assets
Moscow wants sweeping sanctions relief and a deal over frozen state assets; Kyiv and many allies say relief must be conditioned on withdrawal and accountability, making sanctions one of Ukraine’s strongest levers.
EU membership
Ukraine is pushing ahead with EU accession talks and reforms that bind it to Western institutions. Russian officials bristle at this trajectory, casting deeper EU integration as a strategic threat.
A “sanitary/buffer zone” inside Ukraine
The Kremlin has talked about creating a protective buffer along the border, including toward Kharkiv; Kyiv refuses to formalize any buffer on its own territory, seeing it as a de facto redrawing of the border.
Control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Russia continues to occupy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, while Ukraine demands its return and demilitarization. The standoff keeps safety fragile and turns the plant into a persistent regional risk.
Black Sea shipping & grain corridors
Moscow links safe-passage arrangements to easing constraints on Russian food, fertilizer, and related banking; Kyiv wants stable export routes without trading away sanctions leverage, noting global food security shouldn’t be a bargaining chip.
Return of deported Ukrainian children
Ukraine demands the full repatriation of children taken from occupied areas and accountability for those responsible; Russia denies wrongdoing and frames transfers as evacuations—leaving a deep humanitarian rift.
Who pays for reconstruction
Kyiv says Russia should fund war damages and supports using frozen Russian assets to rebuild; Moscow resists blanket liability and seeks conditions or limits, turning recovery financing into a major negotiating hurdle.
The “demilitarization/denazification” narrative
The Kremlin continues to present these as core war aims and preconditions; Ukraine dismisses the framing as propaganda that hardens positions and blocks any pragmatic compromise.
