Trump’s push to shrink government is moving from rhetoric to action.
He’s already signed executive orders, announced layoffs, and drafted reorganizations. But cutting a federal agency isn’t as simple as snapping your fingers.
Congress, the courts, and public backlash all matter. Still, the list of agencies at risk is growing — and some are more vulnerable than others.
The Big Target: Department of Education
Trump wants it gone. Half of its 4,100 employees face layoffs. Functions like student loans and Title I programs would be shifted elsewhere. Odds of full elimination are low without Congress, but massive downsizing is highly likely.
Health Shake-Up: HHS Reorganization
Plans are underway to carve HHS into a new Administration for a Healthy America, merging parts of NIH, CDC, HRSA, and SAMHSA. Roughly 20,000 jobs are on the line. Cuts are likely, but statutory mandates will keep core functions alive.
Arts & Humanities: Easy Prey
NEA, NEH, and IMLS are small, visible targets. Trump’s budget already zeros them out. These programs have been on the chopping block before — odds of severe funding cuts or elimination this year are high if Congress goes along.
Public Broadcasting: Defund and Diminish
An executive order has moved to stop federal funding for NPR and PBS via the CPB. Full elimination is unlikely without Congress, but expect sharp budget pressure and political battles over funding.
USAID: Restructure, Not Remove
Trump is moving to pull USAID under the State Department. A full kill is unlikely given bipartisan support for foreign aid, but odds of a major reduction in autonomy and staff are moderate.
Regulatory Agencies: Powers Stripped
Instead of eliminating entire regulators, Trump is hollowing them out. Climate, DEI, and public health offices are being rolled back. Expect program eliminations and weakened enforcement more than outright agency deaths.
The Odds
- High → DOE massive downsizing; NEA/NEH/IMLS funding cuts.
- Moderate → USAID restructure; HHS sub-agency cuts.
- Low → Full abolition of DOE, CPB, or major regulators.
The Legal Roadblocks
Congress created most agencies — and only Congress can kill them. Court challenges are already underway against HHS moves. Even if Trump zeros out budgets, Congress holds the purse strings.
The Timeline to Watch
- Sept–Oct 2025: House appropriations bills decide early winners/losers.
- Fall 2025: Lawsuits over Education and HHS cuts move into court hearings.
- Dec 2025: Year-end funding deadline — the real moment agencies live or die.
- Early 2026: If courts uphold reorgs, DOE and HHS shifts begin to bite.
Your Takeaway
This isn’t just about saving money — it’s a political war over the size and scope of government. Small cultural agencies and pieces of HHS are ripe for cuts. Big targets like Education will shrink but likely survive in some form. The wild card is Congress: if appropriators fold, 2025 could be the most dramatic reshaping of the federal government in decades.
