Markets have picked a lane.
Mamdani is the prohibitive favorite; Cuomo is the only real catch-up story.
Adams and Sliwa are lottery tickets. Here’s the tape right now — and what could still flip it.
The line
Boards price Mamdani as a heavy favorite. Cuomo sits in the low-teens lane. Adams and Sliwa are low single-digit long shots.
Field & lanes
Mamdani (Dem) owns the progressive, small-dollar lane. Cuomo (independent) hunts moderates and outer-borough Dems. Adams (independent) leans on incumbency ties. Sliwa (GOP) rides a crime-first brand.
Polling pulse
Recent public polls show Mamdani leading in most head-to-head and multi-way scenarios, with a durable edge among younger and renter-heavy blocs.
Endorsements & machinery
Labor and progressive orgs are clustering around Mamdani. Cuomo’s path needs big-tent endorsements and late donor oxygen. Adams’ network helps, but not enough on its own.
Money & ground game
Mamdani’s small-dollar spigot plus field hustle is the engine. Cuomo’s name ID buys him air cover; he still needs doors knocked.
Issue gravity
Rent, cost of living, transit, and basic city services dominate. Mamdani’s rent-freeze/tenant pitch sets the frame; Cuomo argues managerial competence.
Map dynamics
Mamdani: western Queens, brownstone Brooklyn, Manhattan core. Cuomo: older Dems and outer-borough moderates. Sliwa: Staten Island/south Brooklyn. Adams: scattered incumbency pockets.
What could still swing odds
A real consolidation behind Cuomo, a debate breakaway, a late mega-endorsement, or a ballot-mechanics surprise.
Base case
Multi-way math favors the front-runner: strong plurality wins.
Prediction
Mamdani holds unless consolidation gets real — fast. Otherwise, this is his to lose.
