Donald Trump’s newest crusade? Slapping a 100% tariff on films made outside the U.S.
It’s part cultural flex, part economic gamble — and it has Hollywood nervous, indie filmmakers furious, and moviegoers wondering why popcorn prices weren’t already bad enough.
Prediction markets don’t think it’s likely to happen this week — Kalshi puts it at a meager 7% — but there’s always a chance.
Here’s what this mess could mean for the industry … and for anyone who still loves going to the movies.
The Industry Impact: Foreign Shoots Get Pricier
Studios film abroad to cut costs — cheaper crews, killer tax breaks. But with a 100% tariff? Those savings vanish. Some productions could see cost hikes of 30—40%, especially mid-tier and streaming films.
Some International Partnerships Might Say Adios
U.S. studios love co-productions with Canada, Europe, and Asia. But foreign partners won’t love working with an industry now carrying tariff baggage. This could chill collaboration — and shrink what stories get told.
Indies Could Get Squeezed First
Big studios can swallow tariffs. Indie filmmakers? Not so much. Tight budgets don’t stretch when you’re hit with border taxes. Expect fewer festival gems, foreign-language films, or experimental projects.
Anticipate Retaliation
You tax their movies, they’ll tax ours. Countries like France, India, and the UK could hit back, putting U.S. films at a disadvantage overseas — especially in box office-rich markets.
The Moviegoer Experience: Tickets Could Get Even More Expensive
If studios pay more, you pay more. Higher production costs almost always trickle down. Expect another price hike at the box office — especially for anything not made in California.
Content Potentially Gets More America-centric
This isn’t necessarily a good thing. Fewer global partnerships mean fewer diverse voices and perspectives. Theaters may lean harder into safe, U.S.-centric blockbusters — and that could get boring fast.
Expect Delays and Distribution Chaos
If studios have to rethink where they film, expect delays. Timelines stretch, postproduction moves, and release schedules get scrambled. You’ll wait longer for big releases — and some might not arrive at all.
Where Things Stand Now: Nothing’s Final Yet
The tariffs haven’t kicked in — yet. But Trump’s team is floating it hard, citing “national security” and “protecting American jobs.” So far, no legal framework, just heavy noise.
Hollywood Is Dazed and Confused (See What I Did There?)
Executives are scrambling. Directors are furious. Indie producers are terrified. There’s no clarity on exemptions or implementation, and the general mood is: “What the hell is this even solving?” There’s also the big question: How the hell would this even work?
Smarter Alternatives Exist — But Politics Is Loud
Instead of tariffs, experts suggest better domestic tax incentives, grants, or studio subsidies. But this isn’t about nuance — it’s about making headlines. Whether the policy survives contact with reality? That’s another story.
