Kimmel’s indefinite suspension blew open.
Affiliates walked, regulators barked, and advertisers got cold feet. That changes the odds for everyone.
Here’s the current risk board — who’s teetering, who’s insulated, and where the next exit might land.
Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
Already pulled “indefinitely.” Unless ABC announces a firm return date, odds tilt toward a full cancellation. Affiliate revolt + FCC heat = lethal combo.
The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)
Fallon’s under contract through 2028, but he’s a lightning rod for Trump criticism and has soft patches in ratings. If the Kimmel model repeats, network patience could thin.
Late Night with Seth Meyers (NBC)
Ratings lead at 12:37, but political edge makes him vulnerable to organized pressure. NBC might reshuffle if ad dollars wobble.
Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
Not broadcast, but Maher’s political volatility and HBO’s post-merger cost cuts could put him under review.
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)
Rotating hosts haven’t stabilized ratings. Weak affiliate footprint, low ad revenue, and brand fatigue elevate risk.
Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO/Max)
Critically beloved, but expensive. If Warner Bros. Discovery leans on cost savings, Oliver could face a shorter leash.
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
Not imminent, but high cost + declining live ratings make SNL a long-term candidate if another controversy hits.
The Late Show with Stephen Colbert (CBS)
Colbert is ending in May 2026 by choice. The “planned finale” is still a structural exit, reshaping the field.
Stable (for Now)
Gutfeld! (Fox News)
Leads cable late night, advertiser base is conservative and loyal. Stability rooted in ratings dominance.
The Late Late Show Successor (CBS)
CBS swapped James Corden for game-show hybrids. Cheaper formats buy them breathing room.
Jimmy Fallon’s Contract Cushion (NBC)
Contract through 2028 insulates him, even if risk perception rises. Networks hate paying out long deals.
HBO’s Variety Slate (Post-Strike)
Oliver and Maher’s survival hinges on streaming synergy. For now, Max needs marquee names.
SNL’s Cultural Brand Value
Despite costs, NBC sees SNL as cultural glue. More likely to downsize cast than kill outright.
Meyers’ Digital Clout
Clip virality cushions linear dips. If YouTube keeps delivering, NBC rides him longer.
Colbert’s Sunset Run
Ending in 2026 by design, not cancellation. Stability in exit timeline — but adds uncertainty to CBS’s next move.
Prediction Takeaway
At least one more major exit — either an unplanned cancellation or a “retirement dressed as a finale” — is likely before 2026. Kimmel’s case makes clear: affiliates, advertisers, and regulators now have veto power over late night. Expect one surprise departure before year-end, with NBC and HBO under the most pressure to justify costs.
