The Atlantic is churning away this hurricane season.
Six named storms have spun up, only one became a hurricane — but forecasts say the back half could get ugly.
Here’s how the odds look if you treat them prediction-market style.
Where We Stand Now
- 6 named storms to date
- 1 hurricane (Erin, spiked to Category 5 before weakening offshore)
- Season runs through Nov. 30
NOAA Outlook
- 13-18 named storms
- 5-9 hurricanes
- 2-5 major hurricanes
Implied odds
- Above-average season: 70%
- 5+ hurricanes: 65%
- 3+ major hurricanes: 55%
Colorado State University (CSU) Forecast
- 16 named storms
- 8 hurricanes
- 3 major hurricanes
Implied odds
- 8 hurricanes: 45%
- 3 major hurricanes: 40%
- Vox / Independent Analysts
- 6-10 hurricanes total
- 3-5 major hurricanes
Implied odds: - 6-10 hurricanes: 50%
- 3+ majors: 45%
Risk Factors Driving the Odds
- Hot oceans: Atlantic sea temps running record highs.
- La Nina: Reduced wind shear supports storm growth.
- Longer warm season: Peak stretches into late fall.
Market Board Snapshot
- <5 hurricanes: ~20%
- 5-7 hurricanes: ~35%
- 8+ hurricanes: ~45%
- 3+ major hurricanes: ~50-55%
Takeaway
The season looks tilted toward an active, above-average finish. Erin proved storms can explode from Category 1 to Category 5 overnight. Odds favor at least 5-9 hurricanes total, with a coin-flip chance of three or more majors before November’s end.
