Agencies are leaning on management-directed reassignments, forced relocations, return-to-office ultimatums, tougher probation calls, and Schedule-F-style reclassifications.
Net effect: move people, prompt attrition, shrink dissent, keep the mission running on thinner ice.
Here’s where it’s headed.
What’s happening now
Career staff are being shifted into unfamiliar roles, cross-posted between components, and nudged to exit. Service slowdowns follow.
The MDR lever
“Report to new duties/new duty station — or separate.” Remote roles get converted to on-site; decline equals departure.
Relocations & RTO
Short-fuse moves, limited waivers, and RTO enforcement function as attrition by design.
Schedule F redux
Policy-touching jobs get reclassified, trimming civil-service protections and easing removals.
Probation & performance
Stricter retain/terminate decisions, more PIPs, faster separations in trial periods.
Where pressure bites
Regulatory/enforcement, grants, science, legal, and policy comms — anywhere analysis can slow or shape policy.
Public impact
Slower benefits, fewer inspections, delayed grants, and data gaps as expertise scatters.
Worker playbook
Get orders in writing; log everything; consult union/HR; check hardship, PCS/TQSE, and MSPB timelines; request comparable-grade placements.
What to watch
Designation lists, bulk MDR emails, vacancy freezes, EEO/reprisal spikes, and early court skirmishes over reclassifications.
Prediction
More MDRs and targeted relocations through Q4; a second wave tied to reclassifications; selective RIF prep where attrition lags. Blue-state agencies recruit displaced talent; litigation slows — but doesn’t stop — the near-term shift.
