This year’s spotlight isn’t on the White House — it’s on two governor’s mansions.
Virginia and New Jersey are holding high-stakes races that will test voter sentiment under Trump and preview the fight for Congress in 2026.
Both contests are being watched nationally for signs of where momentum is shifting. Here’s the latest, with the freshest polling and odds.
Virginia Governor — Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears
Spanberger leads by 7–12 points in recent polling, powered by strong fundraising and voter focus on reproductive rights and cost of living.
Spanberger’s edge
A July VCU poll put her up 12; the race average shows a steady ~7.6 point advantage. Organization and money favor the Democrat.
Earle-Sears’ challenge
The lieutenant governor has struggled with fundraising and message discipline, leaving her playing catch-up despite Trump’s vocal support.
Virginia’s issues
Abortion rights, immigration, and economic anxiety dominate. Spanberger has the clearer message; Earle-Sears leans on cultural fights.
New Jersey Gov. — Sherrill vs. Ciattarelli
Polls show Sherrill with an 8–9 point lead. Still, New Jersey tends to tighten late, and Ciattarelli has deep local ties.
Sherrill’s positioning
As a former congresswoman, she’s drawing suburban and urban strength. Her campaign message ties Trump to GOP extremism.
Ciattarelli’s opening
He’s keeping the race competitive, presenting himself as a pragmatic Republican in a blue state — an echo of past GOP wins.
New Jersey’s issues
Property taxes, corruption, and cost of living lead voter concerns, giving Ciattarelli room to press.
Prediction landscape
- Virginia: Lean Democratic. Spanberger is favored.
- New Jersey: Lean Democratic, but tighter — Republicans have a credible shot.
Why it matters
Wins in Virginia or New Jersey will be read as referendum signals on Trump. Expect donors, operatives, and strategists to recalibrate national plans based on these outcomes.
