Pop-culture tape, not gospel. Here’s how the market is pricing an engagement — and how we’re handicapping a breakup — using clean rules, fresh signals, and what would actually move the line.
The line right now
“Yes (engaged in 2025)” trades around ~14% on a thin book (~$3.3k). Low-probability.
What ‘Yes’ must be
On-record announcement of engagement (or marriage) before Dec. 31. Hints don’t count.
Pro-relationship signal
She’s visibly supporting him (UNC debut optics). Public togetherness > quiet split.
Headline risk
Hudson’s “Gold Digger” trademark move keeps drama — and volatility — alive.
Rumor vs confirmation
Whispers exist (“they’re engaged” / “they’re not”)—but no clean, attributable statement. Price stays muted.
Breakup odds
Spring props implied ~33% for a 2025 split. Adjusted today: ~30—35%.
What pops ‘Yes’
A press hit or post explicitly saying “engaged,” ring photo + on-record confirmation, majors echoing it.
What lifts breakup risk
Credible separation reporting, scrubbed socials, missed public hits, or messy UNC-cycle headlines.
How to read the tape
Rumors spike intraday; durable moves need explicit wording that matches resolution rules.
Prediction
Base case: No engagement by EOY; breakup sits one-in-three range. Trade the language, not the chatter.
