President Donald Trump famously considers himself the master of deal-making. I mean, he titled a book after the idea. But there are still challenges.
As global supply chains shift and international alliances tighten, the United States is racing to finalize new trade agreements before July.
Countries like Israel, Japan, India, and Vietnam lead the pack, while traditional partners like Canada, Mexico, and the European Union trail behind. And a deal with China is of particular interest.
Geopolitics, elections, and economic pressure are reshaping the map — and traders are betting big on which deals will actually close before the clock runs out.
Here are the top contenders — but bear in mind the numbers can and will fluctuate.
Israel
Israel has high odds. U.S.-Israel relations remain tight, and a formal trade deal would be a political win for both sides amidst rising regional tension.
Polymarket says: 77%
Japan
Traders are highly confident a deal with Japan will be finalized. Strong security ties and shared interest in supply chain resilience are pushing this deal forward.
Polymarket says: 75%
India
Despite complicated trade barriers, the U.S. and India are likely to announce some form of trade agreement before mid-2025, reflecting growing strategic and economic ties.
Polymarket says: 74%
Vietnam
Vietnam remains a major focus as the U.S. seeks alternatives to Chinese manufacturing. Markets believe a new trade agreement is very likely.
Polymarket says: 71%
South Korea
South Korea, a close ally, already has strong economic ties with the U.S., and markets expect deeper trade frameworks to be solidified.
Polymarket says: 69%
United Kingdom
Support for a U.S.-U.K. deal is still strong but has slipped slightly. Regulatory hurdles and political timing may delay finalization.
Polymarket says: 61%
Argentina
A surprise riser. Argentina’s odds have jumped amid stronger economic dialogue. Traders believe a smaller or sector-specific deal could be finalized.
Polymarket says: 59%
European Union
Odds of a broader U.S.-EU agreement are slightly better than even. However, complex regulatory negotiations could slow things down.
Polymarket says: 56%
Mexico
Markets are split on Mexico. Despite existing trade ties under USMCA, a new bilateral deal or adjustment seems unlikely before July 2025.
Polymarket says: 47%
Australia
Australia remains a strong U.S. ally, but no major new trade agreement is anticipated in the immediate term, based on current trading sentiment.
Polymarket says: 44%
Canada
Similar to Mexico, Canada is already locked into USMCA. A brand-new deal seems unlikely without broader renegotiations, keeping odds low.
Polymarket says: 41%
China
Tensions remain high. While dialogue has improved slightly, a new trade agreement with China is viewed as unlikely by traders.
Polymarket says: 39%
Brazil
Brazilian ties are strengthening around supply chains and energy, but a full trade deal by mid-2025 remains a distant bet.
Polymarket says: 34%
Germany
Germany’s odds are low due to broader U.S.-EU tensions and complex industrial regulation differences.
Polymarket says: 20%
France
Markets are extremely skeptical about a direct U.S.-France deal. Regulatory differences, especially on tech and agriculture, weigh heavily against a quick agreement.
Polymarket says: 17%
